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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS:
Coming out of Covid-19 - What is the Agriculture Outlook for 2020 and Beyond?
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By: Ms Emily French
Ms. Emily French is an experienced trader, analyst, broker and presently the founder & managing director of ConsiliAgra. Her passion for agriculture started early-childhood on a farm in north Idaho through earning a degree in Agricultural Business at Washington State University to starting her professional career with Cargill in 1996. Following Cargill, Ms. French worked for the U.S. Grains Council and World Perspectives in Washington, DC. She shifted to investment banking and OTC markets with National Australia Bank and Macquarie Bank. In early 2009, Emily left Macquarie to form ConsiliAgra – a brokerage and strategy group covering the world agricultural commodity markets, specializing in grain and oilseeds. Clients include flour mills, feed mills, ethanol plants, hedge funds, crush plants and investment banks. When not on an airplane, Ms. French resides in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest and can always be reached at: efrench@consiliagra.com 
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The world is in the midst of full-blow pandemic with great uncertainty. The only thing that certain is its impact on everyone and everything.
When will we slowly return to normal in a recovery or rebound and what is the new normal?
What does agriculture world look like POST-COVID versus what had been the more norm of a PRE-COVID world?
Are we in the midst of what had been a more “just-in-time” inventory strategy to an evolution towards a “just-in-case” procurement strategy?
Do we see exporting countries becomes more food security sensitive – namely, the Black Sea?
Geo-politically, the China-U.S. trade relationships remains highly volatile given the U.S. Presidential election in November and what happens with the Phase I trade agreement?
How will all this impact the massive protein gap that exists in Asia?
Ms. French will give an overview of the global grain & oilseeds complex landscape with particular focus on those demand growth engines that were adversely impacted by COVID and where supply chain risks may lie. What are the known knowns and where or what are the greatest price risk threats to world importers as the markets trade at multi-year / decade low price points?
The presentation will include a look at the northern hemisphere planting and production cycle that is underway, in addition to key price relationships that will influence global trade flows.
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Corn fund short - this is a reflection of adequate-ample world corn supplies with Argentina's corn harvest slowly wrapping up, Brazil safrinha corn harvest just starting (this crop is the one that handles much of the export biz that Brazil does) + U.S. weather / plantings and so on look much better than last year. In short - you are going to see a massive build in U.S. ending stocks vs demand headwind concerns, especially from the major growth engine being ethanol. Ethanol production has recovered but not nearly enough to prevent a contraction in demand. If funds cover their short position - it will likely not have a massive price impact to the upside given the U.S. farmer is undersold. Ergo - you will have a natural seller over this market on any price correction to the upside. Soymeal fund short - this is the biggest risk to the upside as soymeal lacks a natural seller (ergo - corn and soy and wheat, etc. have farmer selling that is over the market). We've seen what happens a few times when funds move to cover that short position (just look at the massive vertical price moves in soymeal charts and that is typically when funds are covering their short positions - and it usually happens into a vacuum). I think also some of that short is from where soy oil prices collapsed at the start of CY2020 - and so did oil share. As such, I do think some of this soymeal short is spread vs soy oil (ergo - long oil share: long soy oil / short soymeal).
3 years ago
There has been no issue with market access for soy oil for the majority of world buyers Planting I would offer that U.S. soy planting is now done and the weather looks very good. Brazil is forecast to plant a recorded amount of soybeans in 2020-21 with the Real-USD providing record pices when it was 5.8-5.9:1. This has prompted a lot of farmer selling for 2020-21 estimated at 35-40% sold. Ergo if the crop = 130MMT that would suggest the farmer has sold 45.5MMT 52MMT As for Argentina, there will be minimal changes as the land is largely already in rotation. The challenge that Argentina always faces is its own government. With respect to soy oil, the major challenge for that has been SME (biodiesel) and exports into Europe, but that is an Argentina issue. With respect to Brazil soy oil / biodiesel ANP has cut the blend rate from 12% to 10% , so that has throttled back demand there. Both countries face really poor crush margins, so that will be an ongoing challenge. With respect to logistics, there has been no problem due to COVID. The only major challenge has been for Argentina and the low water levels on the river (this has forced lighter load levels for all the vessels)
3 years ago