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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US:
US-China Trade Dispute under Biden: Its Effects on Global Agricultural Trade and US Edible Oils
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• General topic: “Where does the USA stand in terms of global trade after 4 years of America first with bilateral trade focus vs the growing multilateral trade deals under Chinese influence and how does this affect the global agricultural trade
• Parts I will cover in likely around 25-30 minutes:
o Global agricultural markets with a focus on China and the USA
o The recent regional partnerships changing the political maps: RCEP/CAI
o China vs the US, what happened so far and why do they need each other?
o Implications and expectations of the Biden transition from Trump and the 14th 5-year plan in China
o From trade war to strategic competition
o Impact on agricultural commodities with a focus on Soybeans and Palm oil
o Recap
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Hi Anthony, great questions, and something to consider. I don't think they do this for countries to take sides, but really to try to enforce their ways of viewing labour laws and employment practices. Personally, I don't believe that punishing an industry will help in getting a country to work on your behalf. Also, the whole conflict is more about global domination than about an actual conflict. Power is something people have to give you (just like respect) and forcing others by bans and duties is not in line with that.
2 years ago
Thanks Kisho, I doubt there will be a lot of impact on the Malaysian palm oil markets from a US point of view. Some upside in imports, but it will never become a market that really makes a difference on the balance sheets. 1.5-1.7mmt max in my opinion. Additional biodiesel demand would be covered by soybean and waste oil mainly with more canola oil imports from Canada. In the Western world, using food products for energy will not be seen as sustainable ones it goes mainstream. So the main effects will be trade flow changes (more beans from Brazil to China and more Canola from Canada to the US) with limited direct impact on our markets. If China gets into a fight and there are no beans available, palm will be the balancing product to cover short term additional needs on the edible oil side.
2 years ago
Hi Mohd, great set of questions and hard to reply here in 1 place. In general, the US is focussing a lot more on climate change as is seen in the US Infrastructure roadmap (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/) but details there are still thin and unclear. What I believe is that the US will go absolutely full blast on locally produced biodiesel out of Soybean oil and waste oil. This will result in higher local crush + perhaps more canola oil imports from Canada. Palm oil is not really widely used for food so there could be some upside but there is no downside on the technical demand. Overall, I use 1.5-1.7mmt in total palm demand for the next year or 2 (no real change, some upside). As for China import restrictions on soybeans, there is little use on this. It will just change the flow as we saw in the past. Brazil will win with a larger export flow while the US will cater for EU and partially even South American imports. There are enough beans, but the logistics could be strained now under COVID. I doubt there will be any bans or hard restrictions as they are in no ones interest to start. Better to keep what is already a fairly firm stand from both sides and see how it pans out. The US needs to sell beans, and China needs to import as we saw a few years ago. For now, its easier to buy beans and stick at least to the agreement, while filling your reserves.
2 years ago