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Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
2019 Market Landscape - Will the CPO Price Recover?
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By: Mr. Oscar Tjakra
Oscar Tjakra is the Executive Director, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. He is located in Singapore, and focuses on palm oil and grains and oilseeds sector.
Oscar was previously a RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Analyst with Singapore branch from July 2008 to October 2010 covering various sectors including grains and oilseeds, sugar, cocoa and animal protein.
In his most recent role, he was Senior Vice President of Freight Research with Oldendorff Carriers Singapore, where he led global supply and demand research of the grains & oilseeds sector.
Oscar holds a Master of Science in Applied Finance from Singapore Management University and Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) from Nanyang Technological University. 
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The world oilseeds supplies have grown steadily in the past decades due to increasing oilseeds planting areas and increasing oilseeds yield. The increase of these oilseeds supplies, excluding oil palm, are driven mainly by increasing global demand for oilseeds meals for the production of animal feeds. As a consequence of this, more oilseeds are crushed for their meals, instead of for their oils in recent years, which adds into increasing availability of global vegetable oils supply.
Assuming normal weather, we expect a continuation of the global palm oil oversupply situation, which will result in higher global inventories in 2019. This is mainly the result of an increase in mature palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia and Malaysia, which will continue to provide downward pressure to prices in 2019. In addition, global soft oil supplies in 2018/19 are still expected to be high, on the back of large soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops across major producing countries. Availability of these soft oils will provide competition for palm oil demand.
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Posted on behalf of the speaker : Unfortunately due to company’s policy, I’m not able to provide the answer
5 years ago
Posted on behalf of the speaker : Love My Palm oil is great initiative to create more understanding about palm oil industry and increase palm oil consumption in Malaysia and globally. However, to increase global palm oil consumption in larger scale, we need collective efforts from global palm oil producers to promote more palm oil consumption globally. Increasing domestic palm oil demand through biodiesel mandate in producing countries is one way to increase global palm oil consumption.
5 years ago
Posted on behalf of the speaker : I think Indonesian biodiesel policy will remain in place, no matter who wins the Indonesian presidential election. Both candidates are friendly to biodiesel. In fact, in recent presidential election debate, both candidates pledged to achieve energy self-sufficiency by increasing the use of palm oil based biodiesel.
5 years ago
Posted on behalf of the speaker : EU demand for palm oil and palm oil based biodiesel will still be stable this year. If the draft of EU’s commission delegated-act becomes law, we will only see the reduction of palm oil based biodiesel in the EU post 2023. Hence, I don’t think CPO price will break below RM 2,000/tonne in 1H 2019.
5 years ago
Posted on behalf of the speaker : The implementation of B30 mandate in Indonesia will translate to total annual domestic biodiesel demand of ~9 million kilolitres for transportation sector, or ~3 million kilolitres higher than B20 mandate. If B30 mandate is implemented in Indonesia in July 2019, I believe palm oil prices could increase above RM 2,500 in 2H 2019. This is due to larger reduction of palm oil inventories in Indonesia which will result in lower year on year palm oil inventories in Indonesia.
5 years ago
This question has been transferred for the MPOB speaker to answer . Thank you.
5 years ago
Posted on behalf of the speaker : Current low palm oil price environment is caused by oversupply situation which results in high domestic palm oil inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia. To reduce high domestic palm oil inventories level, both Indonesian and Malaysian governments are; increasing domestic biodiesel mandates to reduce high domestic palm oil inventories level and promoting more palm oil exports to traditional and non-traditional destinations. While certain companies still make healthy margins from their downstream operations, overcapacity in palm oil downstream industry remains in the region. It is possible for palm oil companies to expand their business, however it will be in terms of finding new customers as opposed to increasing production capacity.
5 years ago