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Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
Development in G3 Soybean Production and CPO Price Outlook for 2018
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By: Mr. Oscar Tjakra
Oscar Tjakra is the Executive Director, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. He is located in Singapore, and focuses on palm oil and grains and oilseeds sector.
Oscar was previously a RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Analyst with Singapore branch from July 2008 to October 2010 covering various sectors including grains and oilseeds, sugar, cocoa and animal protein.
In his most recent role, he was Senior Vice President of Freight Research with Oldendorff Carriers Singapore, where he led global supply and demand research of the grains & oilseeds sector.
Oscar holds a Master of Science in Applied Finance from Singapore Management University and Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) from Nanyang Technological University. VIEW PROFILE
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Global soybean markets have the potential to behave very unpredictably in 2018, with several key drivers of potential price volatility. Global biodiesel policy, feed demand growth, and increasing global trade are likely to be mildly supportive prices in 2018 as global balance sheets contracts, particularly in major exporter surpluses. Despite our view of a slight YOY reduction in global ending stocks, global soybean prices in 2018 are expected to be capped by historically high inventory.
Meanwhile, Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil yields are expected to normalize in 2018. This coupled with an increase in mature palm oil plantation areas in both countries, will result in rising global palm oil production, providing downward pressure to prices in 2018. In addition, global soft oil supplies in 2018 are expected to be record high, on the back of large soybean, rapeseed and sunflower seed crops across major producing countries. Availability of these soft oils will provide competition for palm oil demand and curb palm oil price rallies.
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES
Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India
Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices
Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price
Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions
Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction
Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations
Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective
Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions
Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges
Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend
Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction
Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead?
Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Posted on behalf of Mr Oscar : We think the recent temporary removal of Malaysian CPO export tax will have limited impact on CPO prices. We expect palm oil demand from India and China to remain sluggish in the short term due to availability of edible oil domestically. India’s edible oil port stocks increased by 25.1% yoy in December 2017 to reach 876,000 tonnes. 475,000 tonnes of these port stocks were palm oil, while the remaining were soft oils. We also expect Chinese palm oil import demand for Lunar New Year to be limited this year due to high edible oil inventories level. As of mid-January 2018, soybean oil inventories at Chinese ports as well as with the factories, at 1.51 million tonnes, were higher 63.2% yoy. Domestic palm oil inventories in China also increased by 35.1% yoy to reach 646,200 tonnes as Chinese buyers imported higher yoy volumes of palm oil in 2H2017.
5 years ago