POINTERS: Market Fundamentals and Directions for Vegetable Oils/Palm Oil : 2nd Half of 2014

By: Mr. Thomas Mielke

Thomas Mielke is Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH in Hamburg (Germany), OIL WORLD, a leading research organization that provides global supply, demand and price analyses, statistics and forecasts for all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils & animal fats and oilmeals as well as for biodiesel and livestock products with clients in 100 countries. He is a frequent speaker at conferences and workshops all over the world. Thomas Mielke joined the OIL WORLD team in the mid-1970s, after studying economics. He is a member of the Programme Advisory Committee of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board and is giving lectures at the University of Hamburg (TUHH). In 2014 Thomas Mielke received a Lifetime Excellence Award of the Malaysian industry in recognition of his contributions and commitments. OIL WORLD was founded in 1958 and is recognized worldwide as a leading independent, authoritative and unbiased information provider. The WEEKLY and daily FLASH reports can be obtained from www.oilworld.de and also an OIL WORLD report in Mandarin is released 2 times a week.

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Thomas Mielke will present latest world supply and demand estimates from OIL WORLD - - the independent provider of global research and analysis - - and will discuss the impacts on palm oil demand and prices. With record soybean crops likely to be harvested in the 2014/15 season, world supplies are ample. Although a setback is expected in world production of sunflowerseed and rapeseed, total world oilseed production is expected to exceed prospective demand, resulting in an accumulation of stocks in the 2014/15 season. -- For palm oil the production outlook is not as favourable as for oilseeds. First impacts of the drought of early 2014 will be seen in a slowdown in yields in several parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Thomas Mielke will highlight latest palm oil production estimates for the two major countries as well as worldwide and discuss the competitive position of palm oil in relation to soya oil and other vegetable oils. He will also present his estimates on consumption and trade. India will be one of the highlights because this year's insufficient monsoon rains will reduce kharif oilseed production, raising vegetable oil import requirements. The energy market has recently shown improved demand in reaction to the sizable reduced prices of soya oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils. In concluding, price projections will be given for the next few months.

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Questions & Answers (4) :

Thomas Mielke

2023 years ago

Dear Faudzy, yes I agree. And my conclusion has been on Aug 22 that oilmeals will became the weakest member of the complex, having considerable downward potential in the months ahead, while vegetable oil prices are likely to recover (at least moderately) and soybeans being priced somewhere inbetween. This was also expressed in the OIL WORLD Monthly of Aug 22, which is available under www.oilworld.de

Thomas Mielke

9 years ago

In your presentation you have highlighted that the influence or impact of biodiesel production from Brazil and Argentina will trigger a lower export of soyoil from these two countries and consumers will look at the United States as its alternative supplier. In addition as you have clearly stated that the United Sates will endure a bumper harvest and crop, which in my humble view translate into an overwhelming or abundance supply of soya meal from the G3 producers and from other oilseed meals. How do you see the impact of these higher availability of soya meal and other oil meals stocks influencing the feed meal market and the vegetable oil price movements .

Thomas Mielke

9 years ago

Dear Lim Teck Chaii, you touch a very vital point. Indeed, if the situation deteriorates, there could indeed be negative effects on the trade of oils and fats, grains, oilseeds, meals and other products. So far, however, impact on trade have been very limited. In fact, exports of grains from Ukraine and Russia exceeded expectations in July and August. We will continue to close monitor the situation and keep our reader informed in the daily Flash reports and in our WEEKLY. One member of the OIL WORLD team is from Ukraine. Kindly contact us if we can be of further assistance.

LIM TECK CHAII

9 years ago

Mr. Thomas Mielke. Thank you for the presentation. Ukraine is in a war zone. In war affected areas, there is possibility of businesses facing shipment problem. Is this happening for oils and fats trade in Ukraine?