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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook 2016
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By: Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian.
He is presently holding several important positions which include:
i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad
iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad
Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are:
(i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM)
(ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA)
(iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA)
(iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters
His notable academic achievements are as follows:
i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand;
ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and
iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.
Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB).
In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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In the first half of 2016, palm oil prices moved on an uptrend since January and reaching a high of RM2,756/MT in April. This was the highest price in 18 months as concerns over production on account of the effects of El Nino phenomenon on palm oil pushed price upwards. However, since mid- June 2016, there has been a heavy downward pressure on palm oil prices due to the abundant supply of other competing oils namely soybean oil.
It is anticipated that growth in palm oil supplies and exports would be severely impacted this year as Malaysian palm oil production in the first six months of 2016 was 1.45 million MT or 16% lower than the corresponding period of last year. Overall, we anticipate that there will be growth in overall oils and fats production but the rate of growth is likely to be less than that of last year. Palm oil which is poised to exceed 61 million MT will again be the market leader in the global oils and fats production and will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats.
As the two top palm oil producing countries contributing to 88% of the global palm oil production, Malaysia and Indonesia will be the focus of the international oils and fats trade. Palm oil prices have a very different structure than other vegetable oils as the price tends to set the standards for all other competing oils. As 88% of all the palm oil is produced in Malaysia and Indonesia and with 30% of the global oils and fats production coming from Malaysia and Indonesia, the role played by both countries is vital in forecasting palm oil price.
During the last six months of 2016, palm oil prices have fluctuated between a low of RM2,257/MT and a high of RM2,756 recorded in May. The stagnating price of crude mineral oil price during this period has impacted the price of not only palm oil but also other edible oils such as soybean and sunflower oils.
This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price especially in the second half of 2016 such as demand and supply situations. Other factors such as the influence of the current stagnating crude oil price will also be taken into account. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries such as India, China, EU and USA is nevertheless, expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price, demand and supply balance in 2016.
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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