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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Malaysia's Palm Oil Supply and Demand Outlook for 2020
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Datuk Dr. Ahmad Parveez Hj. Ghulam Kadir
Datuk Dr. Ahmad Parveez is currently the Director General of Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). He was appointed as Fellow of Academy Science Malaysia in 2016 and Member of National Biosafety Board (2018 – 2022). In July 2021, he was appointed as a Member of the Science Council of Malaysian Agricultural Research & Development Institute (MARDI). He sits on various other Boards; Board of Trustee of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC, 2019 -2022), Board of Trustee of Malaysian Palm Oil Certification Council (MPOCC, 2019 - 2023) and Board of Trustee of Institute of Malaysian Plantation and Commodities (IMPAC). Datuk Dr. Ahmad Parveez was previously the Chairman of Genetic Modification Advisory Committee under the National Biosafety Board (GMAC, 2010 – 2018). Recently, Datuk Dr. Ahmad Parveez was appointed as an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Putra Malaysia (UPM). He is also very active in various professional societies including as the President of International Society for Oil Palm Breeders (ISOPB), Chairperson for the Asian Section of American Oil Chemists’ Society (AOCS) and Board Member of The International Society of Biocatalysis and Agricultural Biotechnology (ISBAB).
Datuk Dr. Ahmad Parveez was born in Taiping, Perak and obtained his secondary education at Sekolah Menengah King Edward VII, Taiping. He graduated with Bachelor of Science (UKM) in Genetics, Master of Science (UKM) in Molecular Genetics and a PhD (UPM) in Plant Genetic Engineering. He has 32 years of experience in Plant Molecular Biology, Genetic Engineering and Biosafety. He developed world first transgenic oil palm in 1997. His interest is in genetic modification of oil palm, biosafety of living modified organisms and oil palm sustainability.
He has obtained a number of prestigious awards both locally and internationally. He has 17 patents filed and six of them have been granted. He has authored and co-authored almost 100 papers in refereed journals and more than 250 conference papers. 
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The year 2019 has been a better year for the Malaysian oil palm industry as compared to that of in the previous year. In 2019, improvements have been recorded in many key performance indicators such as crude palm oil (CPO) production, exports and palm oil stocks. In addition, palm oil price in the second half of 2019 has shown an impressive recovery, with December 2019 registered the highest price since March 2017. Overall in 2019, CPO production recorded an increase by 1.8% to 19.86 million tonnes as against 19.52 million tonnes recorded in 2018, attributable to improved productivity, both in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production and CPO production. The FFB yield recorded an increase of 0.1% to 17.18 tonnes per hectare while oil extraction rate (OER) increased by 1.3% to 20.21%. In the global scenario, the wider CPO price discount as against its major competing oils in 2019, coupled with the supported market situation in the importing countries particularly in India, China and the EU had boosted exports of palm products, especially palm oil, palm kernel oil and biodiesel. All in all, total exports of oil palm products in 2019 were higher by 12.0%, amounting to 27.86 million tonnes as compared to 24.88 million tonnes exported in 2018. However, the weaker palm oil prices in the first half of 2019 had somewhat affected palm oil export revenue in 2019. Export revenue of total palm products for 2019 was at RM64.84 billion, lower by 4.0% as against RM67.52 billion in 2018. In line with the excellent export performance, closing stocks in December 2019 was down by 37.6% to 2.01 million tonnes vis-à-vis 3.22 million tonnes recorded in 2018. For the year 2020, Malaysian palm oil industry is forecast to perform better primarily driven by the expected firmer palm oil prices with palm oil demand is expected to remain stable to generate higher export revenue for the palm oil industry in 2020.
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : At the point of writing this slides and report, we have taken into account the palm oil issues in India and EU. Other factors that we also took into account were the marginal palm oil production growth both in Malaysia and Indonesia, the implementation of B30 in Indonesia and B20 in Malaysia, the African swine fever in China and the US-China trade war. However, the conclusion did not take into account the possible impact of the Covid-19 into palm oil demand since the issue was not that prominent during the time of writing. Now that Covid-19 has become a global issue, it might give some impact to Malaysian palm oil demand. However the magnitude of the impact is still depending on the scale of the impact to the global economy, especially to the Malaysian palm oil importing countries.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : In total, imports of palm kernel in 2019 amounted to 71,994 tonnes, of which, 62.6% or 45,088 tonnes were from Indonesia while the remaining were coming from Thailand, Papua New Guinea and Cambodia.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The current CPKO and RBD PKO export duty exemption will take effect until 30th June 2020. The export duty will be reinstated beginning 1st July 2020.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Indonesia remained as the major source of imports of oil palm products in 2019. From the total 977,131 tonnes of palm oil imports, 934,188 tonnes or 95.6% were from Indonesia. Meanwhile, 174,073 tonnes or 76.2% of 258,925 tonnes of palm kernel oil were sourced from Indonesia. Other exporting countries of palm products include Thailand, Papua New Guinea and Cambodia.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The loss of market share in India is to be substituted by the increase in intake by many other importing countries, not only Pakistan as Malaysian palm oil is destined to more than 160 countries. As for Pakistan, Prime Minister of Pakistan during his visit to Malaysia on Feb 2020, has pledged to import more palm oil from Malaysia, following India’s decision to restrict imports of refined palm oil from Malaysia. Exports of Malaysian palm oil to Pakistan for Jan 2020 grew by 90,142 tonnes or 2.1 fold to 170,802 tonnes from 80,660 tonnes in Jan 2019. In general, Malaysian palm oil exports are performing well by looking at Jan 2020 stock figure of 1.76 million tonnes.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : From the total 5,900,157 hectare of oil palm planted area in 2019, 120,862 hectares has been replanted or 2.0% from the total area. Sabah shows an increase of replanting activities of 10,254 hectares or 33.4% to 40,984 hectares in 2019 from 30,730 hectares in 2018. However the increase in replanting activities does not affect the production prospect of oil palm industry in 2020 due to the small scale of replanting activities (only 2.0%) and it only applies to unproductive oil palm trees which do not contribute significantly to oil palm production. As for the fertiliser application, we believe the increase in palm oil price in the second half of 2019 could improve the issue of fertiliser application in oil palm plantation. Thus, we are expecting that the positive result could be seen especially in the second half of 2020 where palm oil production in 2020 is expected to perform better as compared to that of in 2019. We are expecting that the FFB yield and OER performance in 2020 will be slightly better than that of in 2019.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The low FFB yield in June 2018 was due to Festive Raya Celebration season in which estates are having issues of labour shortages to harvest the fruits, whereby the low FFB yield in Dec 2019 was due to the flash flood occurred in several states in Malaysia such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Johor which disrupted the harvesting activities, affecting the FFB yield performances. In general, the FFB yield shows the same movement trend each year.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Exports of Malaysian palm oil to the Philippines declined by 8.7% to 0.63 million tonnes in 2019 due to ample supply availability of domestic coconut oil for consumption arising from higher production of coconut oil by 3.4% to 1.15 million tonnes in 2019 from 1.11 million tonnes in 2018. Meanwhile, exports of palm oil to Pakistan declined by 6.5% from 1.16 million tonnes in 2018 due to higher imports of soyabean from Brazil for crushing by 21.0% to 779,000 tonnes during January-November 2019 from 644,000 tonnes in January-November 2018.
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : Exports of Malaysian palm oil to Bangladesh in 2019 was 150,612 tonnes while exports of palm kernel oil was 9,486 tonnes. Indonesia is the major exporter of palm oil to Bangladesh, taking more than 80% of palm oil market share in the country. Malaysia’s exports of palm oil to Bangladesh in 2019 was down by 51.9% y-o-y partly attributed to significantly higher exports to India (up by 1.90 million tonnes or 75.4%).
3 years ago
Posted on behalf of Dr Ahmad Parveez and Fauziah Arshad : The increased planted area in 2019 does not necessarily indicate that new land was cleared for oil palm cultivation. It could be coming from the conversion of other agriculture land of other commodity to oil palm cultivation. Planted area in Sabah fell due to replanting activity of 40,984 hectares in 2019 from 30,730 hectares in 2018, an increase of 10,254 hectares or 33.4%.
3 years ago