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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction:
Malaysian Palm Oil – Production Forecast and Factors Affecting
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By: Mr. Ramli Abdullah
Ramli Abdullah started his career as a Statistical Officer at the Department of Statistics Malaysia, then joining PORIM/MPOB as a Research Officer. He was later promoted to Principal Research Officer to head the Techno-Economic Research Unit of MPOB. He is currently the Director of the Economic and Industry Development Division of MPOB.
He had a vast experience in research and written a number of papers and made presentations at local conferences, such as Kuala Lumpur Commodities Exchange (KLCE) Workshops, Palm Oil Congress (POC), PORIM International Palm Oil Congress or PIPOC Conferences and MPOB Economic Review and Outlook Seminar. At the international level, his presentations included those at the International Oils and Oilseeds Conference (IOOC), China and technical seminars in Karachi, Pakistan, in Dhaka, Bangladesh and in Vietnam.
He holds a Diploma in Statistics from UiTM, Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration and Master of Arts from United States of America.
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The role of palm oil in the oils and fats sector is remarkably important due to its significant contribution in the sector’s supply and demand balance. It has dominated in the production, consumption, and trading of oils and fats. On the production side, its highest productivity level had positioned it to be the largest produced oil while on the demand side, it is its versatility, techno-economic advantages and nutritional values that had make it a highly consumed and traded oil. Without it, the world will be having a shortage of oils and fats. In this respect, palm oil can be considered as having fewer challenges on the demand side, but has more challenges on the production side. This paper discusses the production of palm oil by Malaysia as the second largest producer by determining its important factors. The significant factors that had affected it in the past are its trend, seasonal, and cyclical factors, in addition to area planted, replanting and weather. It is important to understand them as they will be used to understand its production in 2014. The paper shows that production forecast of palm oil in 2014 by Malaysia is about 19.67 million tonnes.
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction
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