POINTERS: CPO Price 2nd Half 2015 - A Technical Analysis

By: Mr. Benny Lee

Mr. Benny Lee is a private trader, trainer, speaker and practitioner of technical analysis for 10 years. He has conducted trading and technical analysis workshops for private and institutional investors in Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan. Some of his courses such as CPE (Continuing Professional Education by the Securities Commission) have been approved in Malaysia. He has also spoken in many international conferences such as GlobOil, India, Gold and Options conferences in Thailand (AFET), the Asean Rubber Conference, Palm Oil Conference in Jakarta, POTS by MPOC (Malaysian Palm Oil Council) and many others. He has also presented in Exchange-organised events in Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Pakistan. He has presented to a wide range of participants from a group of 10 people to a large audience of 500 people. Mr. Lee writes articles on technical analysis for Smart Investor (Monthly financial magazine in Malaysia), Busy weekly (Weekly financial newspaper), Pulses (Monthly financial magazine by the SGX) and Palm Oil Fortune (Monthly Palm Oil publication). He also appeared on Channel News Asia (Singapore) and BFM89.9 (Malaysia) for his views and commentaries on the financial markets. He graduated in Business Administration and obtained the world’s best paper in Financial Management from the Association of Business Executives, U.K.

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The market remained bearish as compared to last year but less volatile. The price has been trending sideways since the beginning of this year with a range between RM2,100 and RM2,400 Average price to-date is RM2,230 as compared to RM2,400 in 2014. Is the price going to remain in a trading range or or we going to see a trend developing. This presentation will show you where the price is heading towards the end of the year using price chart analysis.

- Recap on forecast made at POINTERS in Feb 2015
- Identifying current trend: Short term analysis of crude palm oil futures price
- Forecasting price using patterns: Chart pattern analysis
- When: Cycle Analysis
- 2015 Average: Price average analysis
- Conclusion

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Questions & Answers (7) :

Saurabh Data

8 years ago

hi benny, BMD CPO 3rd month closes at 1867 (below 1920). you mentioned next support at 1700. you also mentioned price may rebound to 2170/2210. the forecast was valid as long as prices stay above 1900. so now as it has closed below 1900, what is the upper range in oct/nov ?

Rohit

8 years ago

Hello! Do you think palm oil can bounce back from 1920 as current month contract is trading below it ? Don't you think it can fall to Myr 1500 by September or October as there will be pressure of new Soyabean crop in India as well as USA .

Benny Lee Wan Yu:
Hi Rohit, well there is a possibly for price falling below RM1,900 provided that the Ringgit strengthens. This is nowhere to be seen at the moment and hence supporting palm oil prices. Rebounds expected in the last quarter only...
8 years ago

Benny Lee Wan Yu

8 years ago

Dear Kazmi, The decline in crude oil is offset by the weak Ringgit. So, I think if the Ringgit strengthens, that's where price of CPO could fall to the RM1,920 support level mentioned in the presentation.

Kazmi:
Noted and thanks your insights.
8 years ago

Kazmi

8 years ago

Hi Benny. Have you factor in cruel price oil in your forecast for 2nd half 2015? Or may be the price of oil has not relevant in forecast price model .

Zainuddin Hassan

8 years ago

Thank you Mr. Benny Lee for your presentation. For the second half of 2015 which major factor, in your opinion, will have the greatest impact on the price movement of CPO.

Benny Lee Wan Yu:
Weak Ringgit may spur demand. Furthermore, current price is low.
8 years ago

Mr. Abd Alhameed Alselek

8 years ago

thank you for your presentation

Benny Lee Wan Yu:
You are most welcome
8 years ago

A.K.M. Fakhrul Alam

8 years ago

Driven by favourable weather forecast global oils and fats production, specially soyabean and palm oil, is expected to rise higher. As stated in recent USDA report USA is going ahead to experience a bumper crop of soyabean and corn. In such situation would palm oil be able to sustain a price range of RM. 1,900 to RM. 2,200 in 2nd half of 2015 as expected in your presentation ?

Benny Lee Wan Yu:
Dear Mr. Fakrul. Yes, this has already been factored in so I believe the price would still be staying at around these levels and a rebound could be expected only in the last quarter.
8 years ago

A.K.M. Fakhrul Alam:
thanks for the reply
8 years ago