Palm Oil Internet Seminar

A Data Analysis on Palm Oil Trends in These Volatile Times
By: Carlos Perez

Carlos brings to Argus and Oleochem Analytics over a decade of analytical experience in the financial sector, having worked at investment banks, private equity funds, and wealth advisory firms. Under Oleochem Analytics, Carlos is responsible for extensive data & analytics offerings, as well as the creation and management of the company’s online platform, www.oleochemanalytics.com . He graduated from School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University with a Master of International Affairs.

Participants in the Palm Oil and derivatives markets often rely on analyzing the behaviour of related asset prices and indicators to determine future direction of Palm Oil. We take a look at the evolution of the relationship between Palm oil and related indicators and assets to evaluate their current usefulness in the Post Covid era.

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Questions & Answers (8) :
Syahmi Idris
2 years ago
Interesting insight on the market price relationship. In your opinion, what are additional factors that need to be addressed to analyse the market price of palm oil? And do you believe that sustainability sentiment plays a huge role in determining market price?
Anthony Yap
2 years ago
Big data (SBO/CPO) you have currently; are you possible to create with algorithms (AI) trading method on POBO spread, so that we can get better forecast the price direction?
Carlos Perez:
At Argus we do not focus on trading algorithms, but rather focus on longer term trends, analysis, and price reporting.
2 years ago
2 years ago
Hi Carlos Why I'm seeing Indonesian data in Kilotons when compared to Malaysia's in Million ton. Is it because their production and stock under reported?
Carlos Perez:
Indonesia reports its stocks data in Kilotons
2 years ago
2 years ago
Dear Mr Carlos, How to capture the market structure change such as the huge SBO demand from RD that lead to the super premium to CPO price now? How this has affected the R square for the current period despite your analysis for 2020 to now the correlation is still high. thanks
Carlos Perez:
Isolating the magnitude of the influence of SBO demand increases on CPO prices, insofar as those SBO demand increases are not fully reflected in SBO prices, requires additional research and analysis, which we encourage the academic community to tackle.
2 years ago
2 years ago
Hi Mr. Perez, Thank you for the nice correlation analysis between CPO and SBO and CPO Inventory and Prices. I wonder whether it is possible to forecast future CPO prices, given assumption of future SBO prices and CPO Inventory? Thank you.
Carlos Perez:
We are currently working on this, and hope to be able to discuss preliminary results in due time. Write to me at carlos.perez@argusmedia.com if this topic interests you.
2 years ago
Logan Toh
2 years ago
Good day, Mr Carlos. Thank you for the wonderful presentation. I would like to know whether there is any study on the correlation between palm oil price and the strength of Malaysia Ringgit currency? Will it be a positive correlation?
Carlos Perez:
We have run those numbers, along with correlations with other currencies. Reach out to me carlos.perez@argusmedia.com if you are interested in an informal conversation about palm/currency relationships
2 years ago
Carlos Perez
2 years ago
Ms. Foo, thank you for your question. 1. We included Malaysian palm oil stocks in our analysis because they are published on a regular schedule and because some market participants look for this number specifically and because it is widely reported in the financial press. As you start aggregating stock numbers from other sources, you start increasing the potential for noise and you also start getting into issues of data lag, as MPOB figures are published on the 10-12th of the month and reflect end of prior month stock values. Indonesian figures may be as old as 4 months old in some instances. 2. Since we did not run the numbers with other inventory numbers, we cannot say for certain if the results would be statistically different from the numbers we presented here. Your excellent question points again to the need for all interested participants to increase the scope of rigorous statistical analysis of price drivers of this extremely important commodity.
2 years ago
Palm oil price is definitely related to palm oil stock. In your study you showed this price relationship with MPOB stocks (Malaysian palm oil stocks). I think palm oil price will be better related to total global palm oil stock (Malaysia +Indonesia + others). My questions:- 1. Why were the other non Malaysian palm oil stocks not included in your relationship study? 2.If they had been included, would the price-stock relationship still be the same or distorted? If distorted, why please? Thank you.
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