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Section 1: Price Direction:
Global Palm Oil S&D Forecast for 1st Half 2021
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By: Dato' Dr. Hj. Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail
Dato’ Dr. Wan Zawawi bin Wan Ismail is currently the Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council. Prior to this, he was the General Manager for Kelantan Utilities Mubarakan Sdn Bhd in 2020. He had held many positions in Kelantan State Economic Development Corporation before he became the Group CEO of the organization in 2014. Dato’ Wan also currently serves as the Director for Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia Sdn Bhd and PMBK Sawit Sdn Bhd and is on the Board of Trustees for Yayasan Darul Naim.
In 2016, he was awarded with Darjah Kebesaran Kelantan which carries the title Dato’. He has also received the Certificate of Excellence from Ministry of Education in 2010 and Master Trainer Certificate in 2009.
Dato’ Wan Zawawi Wan Ismail has a PhD Extension Education (Community Resource Development) which he received from University Putra Malaysia in 2017. He also has a Master’s degree in Human Resource Management which he completed in 2001 from the same university.
Dato’ Wan is a result driven CEO with over 10 years of experience in leading and enhancing growth and revenue in a number of different corporations in various industries. His main objective has been facilitating change and human capital development in ensuring optimum performance of the organization.

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As we approach the 2nd quarter of 2021, we have seen the global economy slowly but surely staging a recovery from the events of the previous year. There are positive signs that the economic activities would resume but subject to adhering to new norms as a result of the global pandemic. The dynamics of business has shifted from physical to virtual and many countries adapted to this new norm.
In reviewing the global economic performance of 2020, it could be best described as a year like no other before. Economic growth slowed down, beset by low commodities prices and this situation was further exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic which halted most economic activities. However, as the saying goes, every cloud has a silver lining and this was seen in the recovery of palm oil prices at the latter end of the year. The global economy slowly adapted to the challenges and demand gradually picked up. This is reflected in the rise in palm oil prices to close the year at RM3,600/MT and this upward trend in palm oil prices is expected to continue at least until the second half of 2021.
We anticipate that 2021 will see a continuous recovery both in the global economy and oils and fats prices. There will be production growth recovery among all types of oils & fats while demand will also continue to increase in tandem. Oils and fats production globally will again be led by palm oil which will play a crucial role in the global supply of oils and fats. As the two top palm oil producing countries contributing to 85% of the global palm oil production, Malaysia and Indonesia will be the focus of the international oils and fats trade. With 30% of the global oils and fats production coming from Malaysia and Indonesia, the role played by both countries is vital in forecasting palm oil price.
We will analyse regional issues that will affect palm oil price in 2021 and we will also take into account the influence of the other competing oils especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries is expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price in 2021.
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Section 1: Price Direction |
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Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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1) Now that Malaysia has the majority of Palm Oil Production MSPO Certified, when is MPOCC going to launch it as a brand?. MSPO Logo is a Registered Trademark under Intellectual Property Cooperation of Malaysia (MyIPO) since 2014. Protected under Trademarks Act 1976 and Trademarks Regulation 1997. MPOCC has published the document for Issuance of MSPO Logo Usage License by MPOCC under the MSPO Certification Scheme on 20 September 2017(revised Publication Date 1 October 2019) Objective of MSPO Logo; 1) To indicate that the product originated from an oil palm planted area certified to the requirements of the Oil Palm Management Certification (OPMC) standard 2) To indicate that the organisation is certified to the MSPO requirement (OPMC or SCCS) 3) To support the use of MSPO certified palm oil and palm oil products MSPO Logo Usage is available for On-Product Usage (Logo Users must be certified with MSPO SCCS) and Off-Product Usage. MSPO Logo usage application available at https://mspotrace.org.my/Logo_home As such MSPO Logo has been the brand of MSPO certified palm oil and its products since September 2017. Currently, MPOCC is actively promoting the usage of MSPO Logo throughout the palm oil supply chain actor, both domestically and internationally. 2) Any strategies to make it acceptable to consumers as RSPO may want its name to dominate MPOCC is increasing its effort to promote and making MSPO acceptable in other countries, thus it will build consumer confidence. MSPO has been recognised as one of the sustainable palm oil in Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games Sustainable Sourcing Code. MPOCC has also signed an MoU with China Green Food Development Center in collaboration for mutual recognition of MSPO certification and China Green Food certification. Currently, MPOCC is proposing and negotiating with various international organisations to utilise the MSPO certified products in their market. We are also in the midst of devising and executing strategies to ensure that MSPO Logo are being utilised on product labels in the global market. One such strategy is the development of MSPO Simple Verification Scheme (SVS). For more information or if any party is interested in participating in MSPO SVS, kindly contact MPOCC for our further proposal and negotiations. For interested parties, kindly contact MPOCC for more information on programmes and collaboration in MSPO certification and branding through MSPO Logo. We welcome your participation. Apart from that, MPOCC also has introduced the MSPO Trace platform as a tool for consumers to identify the origin of the palm oil source of their consumed products. MSPO Trace is available in desktop and mobile version which is more convenient for the consumers to trace their product source either sustainable or not. This system ensures the Malaysian palm oil supply chain is produced from sustainable products. MPOCC is open to any collaboration on research and development for certification of sustainable palm oil products. That is not limited to the recognition of the standard but we will assist any parties or educational institutions that want to research MSPO Certification Standards and its implementation to the Malaysian palm oil industry. This could help to promote MSPO Certification to the international level simultaneously acceptance of the MSPO certified products as one of the sustainable palm oil sources. Last but not least, there is no fixed premium price set for MSPO certified crude palm oil and the pricing will be based on business arrangement . This will result in a more competitive price for a credible sustainable product to consumers.
3 years ago
Waalaikumussalam. Thank you for the question. India is a net importer of oils and fats. In 2019, India imported approximately 62.4% of their total oils and fats requirement to meet the gap between supply and demand. Palm oil is the largest imported edible oil in India and despite of the current high price and high import tariff in India, Malaysian palm oil is still one of the most competitively prices edible oil in the world and it is widely used in the oils and fats and food industry in India.
3 years ago
Thank you for the question. In our opinion, the price of palm oil will stay on the higher side in the first half of 2021. This is due to a combination of factors like supply constraints, labour shortages and heavy rain in January and February which led to a decline in production in the first two months of 2021. Malaysia's palm oil production registered 2.2 million for January to February 2021 which is 228,002 MT less than the production for the same period last year. MPOC forecast CPO price to move within the range of RM3,502/MT to RM4,190/MT with an average of RM3,842/MT
3 years ago
Thank you for the question. There are a number of factors which contributed to the decline in consumption of palm oil in 2020 as compared to 2019. The biggest factor was the Covid-19 related restrictions which forced almost the entire world to go in to a different degree of lockdown which severely impacted the HORECA segment around the world which is one of the major consumer of palm oil. The production of palm oil in 2020 also decline due to adverse weather which was also a contributor to lower consumption. The decline in the consumption of palm oil in EU in 2020 was not because of the restriction on palm based biofuels in EU as that comes into effect from 2024. The decline in consumption was also related to lockdowns as EU was the worst hit continent by Covid-19.
3 years ago
Thank you for the question. According to the data from MPOB, Malaysia produced 19.14 million MT of CPO in 2020 which was 0.7 million MT lower than the 19.8 million MT produced in 2019. COVID-19 was one of the reasons for the decrease in production.
3 years ago
Thank you for your questions. The reply is as follows: 1) Malaysian palm oil exporters need to comply to the request set by the customs and importers of any countries. Certain importers seek additional certificates in addition to those required by customs, such as halal certificate, MSPO certificate, and RSPO certificate. 2) Malaysia has filed a legal action with WTO, against the European Union regarding measures adopted by the EU and its member states affecting palm oil and palm crop-based biofuels. At this stage no information can be divulged as it is an ongoing case. 3) We are expanding our promotional and market development efforts through tapping into new growing market segment. China, EU, ASEAN, Saudi Arabia and Africa will be the major target for export destinations. Research into new areas and product diversification are the other strategies to counter Indonesian competition.
3 years ago
Thank you for your questions. The reply is as follows: 1) The labour shortage was already factored into the CPO production outlook. Production forecast is higher in 2021 as the COVID situation has eased. Production in 2021 is also expected to increase with better fertiliser application as the CPO price has improved since 2019. 2) Total replanted area is officially monitored by MPOB. We suggest you to redirect this question to MPOB speaker. 3) In 2020, Malaysian palm oil export was low as compared to the export in 2019 due to multiple factors. However in 2021, export is forecast to increase to 17.5 million MT, increasing by 0.57%, driven mainly by low global edible oil supply. The tightness in global edible oil supply in 2021 is indicated by lower edible oil stock usage ratio which is forecast at 13.01%, decreasing by 2.9% compared to the previous year. Overall, palm oil will benefit most under this scenario since it is the most competitively priced edible oil.
3 years ago