POINTERS: Global Oils and Fats Outlook 2014

By: Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron

TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian. He is presently holding several important positions which include: i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are: (i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM) (ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA) (iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA) (iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters His notable academic achievements are as follows: i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand; ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB). In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.

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For the year 2013, global oils & fats production is estimated at 189 million MT compared to the 186 million MT in 2012 which would be an increase of 1.6% in oils and fats production. For 2014, the global oils and fats production is poised to exceed 190 million MT and palm oil again will be at the forefront of this increase in production.

Global palm oil production for 2013 is estimated at 56 million MT, compared to 53.7 million MT in 2012 reflecting an increase of 4.3%. The top two palm oil producing countries, Malaysia and Indonesia will contribute to 85% of the total global palm oil production and the importance of both countries cannot be overlooked as they contribute to almost 30% of the total global oils & fats production.

The price of crude palm oil in the beginning of 2013 was RM2,500/MT and fluctuated erratically from a low of RM2,167/MT in July to a high of RM2,670/MT in December. Among the reasons for the downward trend were the concern over the high stock levels of palm oil especially in the first quarter and the lower export figures reported by Malaysia in the second quarter of 2013. Nevertheless, demand by major consumers such as China, Pakistan and Iran has seen steady increases and this kept price fluctuation to a small range.

This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price in 2014. The regional analysis on the demand and supply of oils and fats scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the demand and supply balance in 2014.

We use the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR) as our basis to determine the price forecasts as it is a useful indicator to show demand and price directions for 2014.

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Questions & Answers (11) :

Vijendra Singh

9 years ago

o sir i am a invester of palm oil please tell me how can i invest in palm oil and increase the supply chain

Vijendra Singh

9 years ago

When prices of palm oil were low in 2013, import demand increased significantly, leading to reduced stocks. In our paper, stock usage ratio is projected to be much lower for 2014, signaling prices to increase. In addition, drought may affect S. American soya bean crops now being harvested. February is also low palm oil production month in Malaysia. All these may triger prices of palm oil to increase recently.

Bhavya

10 years ago

Hi, what is the password to download all papers?

Vijendra Singh :
Add me savita_savita454@yahoo.in
9 years ago

Yusof Basiron

10 years ago

Yusof Basiron

10 years ago

The best opportunity to meet palm oil exporters is to attend POC 2014 in Kuala Lumpur from 3 to 5 March 2014. MPOC will hold biz- match opportunity for those interested to meet exporters. Visit our exhibition booth to register for biz-match appointments..

Yusof Basiron

10 years ago

Mr. Abd Alhameed Alselek

10 years ago

What are the main reasons for the rise in palm oil prices jumped quickly and how it can be expected , what are the factors that affect the price and that will help us to predict such price jumps , which often do not relate to consumption or demand and supply normal

Mr. Abd Alhameed Alselek

10 years ago

Hello sir I am general manager of a large factory , and we import of palm oil from Malaysia , and I hope to make the relationship with large companies exporter in Malaysia Please advise me on the web or shows that support mel to achieve this

Yusof Basiron

10 years ago

Investing in palm oil can be in two ways 1. trade in palm futures market, after training of course, and 2. Buy plantation shares. Both will indirectly increase the supply chain. Trading in physical palm oil is a more serious undertaking.

Yusof Basiron

10 years ago

Zarak Khan

10 years ago

o sir i am a invester of palm oil please tell me how can i invest in palm oil and increase the supply chain

Vijendra Singh :
sir add me facebook ID savita singh savita_savita454@yahoo.in
9 years ago