Palm Oil Internet Seminar

2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices:
G3 Soybean Outlook 2016
Mr. Mohd Izham Hassan

Mohd Izham Bin Hassan graduated from the Southern New Hampshire University, USA with a Bachelor of Science Degree Majoring in Economics & Finance in May 1990. Having started his career in the banking sector with Maybank, he moved on to join one of the biggest plantation companies in Malaysia heading the insurance unit. Among his responsibilities were the procurement of the group insurance requirement and to ensure adequacy of cover for company’s risk exposure. Due to his knowledge in this field, he was assigned to the committee to set up the Enterprise Wide Risk Management (EWRM) programme for the company. He was also assigned to conduct research on production, compile data on estate land bank and liaise with regulatory bodies on submission of monthly statistics. He has more than 15 years of experience in the plantation industry and prior to joining Malaysian Palm Oil Council, he was the Head of the Statistics Department of a major insurance company in Malaysia. He has presented papers at MPOC organised seminars in Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Singapore. He is currently the Manager, Marketing & Market Development Division at Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) responsible for market movement of global oils and fats.
Ms. Rina Mariati Gustam

Rina Mariati binti Gustam graduated from University of Malaysia Terengganu with a Bachelor of Science (Financial Mathematics) in October 2011. Having started her career in the banking sector with CIMB Bank Berhad. She joined MPOC in 2014 as a Market Analyst for Americas region and her portfolio covers the oils and fats markets in the Americas countries.
The total global soybean production in 2016 season is expected to exceed 300 million MT. The three main soybean producing countries, USA, Brazil and Argentina (known as G3 soybean producers) will play an important role in the supplies of soybeans. Together, these three countries are expected to produce 250 million MT or 80% of the global production.

The USA, as the biggest soybean producer in the world produced a record 3.93 billion bushels in 2014/15 or 107 million MT. This is up by 17 percent from 2013/14 according to the Crop Production report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

For 2016, with the world growing two back-to-back record soybean crops, the U.S. has more export competition. High soybean yield expectations this year are based on generally favorable growing conditions to date and on the high percentage of the crop rated in good or excellent condition.

This paper will look into the various aspects in the prospects of the development of soybean production in the G3 countries in 2016. An overview of previous production patterns will be presented and will give our forecast and the role the G3 soybean production will play in the global oils & fats development in 2016.

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Questions & Answers (2) :
Izham Hassan
8 years ago
Dear Mr. Raid, Thank you for your question. The new policy changes are expected to spur commodity exports especially for soybeans and lead to an increase in sales of Argentinian soybeans on the world market in the short term. The effect on palm oil demand but it is still very dependent on the soybean oil vis-à-vis palm oil price discount of which palm oil is currently lower compared to soybean oil. However, this should not impact palm oil very much as the soybeans are essentially used for the meal production. Furthermore, this measure is also to enable Argentina soybeans to better compete against Brazil soybeans in the export market and thus the impact on palm oil is minimal.
Mohamad Raid Majzoub
8 years ago
Dears Mr. Mohd Izham Hassan and Ms. Rina Mariati Gustam, Thank you for the useful presentation, as you mentioned that Argentina reduced the tax on export Soybean and may remove it all by end of this year, thus international market will have additional competitive supplier of Soybean. Do you see in impact on Palm Oil demand due to the above?
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