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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction:
Global Supply and Demand Outlook of Palm and Lauric Oils - Trends and Future Prospects
By: Mr. Thomas Mielke

Thomas Mielke is Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH, OIL WORLD, in Hamburg (Germany), a leading research organization that provides global supply, demand and price analyses, statistics and forecasts for all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils & animal fats and oilmeals as well as for biodiesel and other products. From 1993 until 2007 Thomas Mielke was a member of the Programme Advisory Committee of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Thomas Mielke has given more than 350 lectures and talks in conferences and workshops all over the world. He joined the OIL WORLD team in the mid-1970s, after studying economics and specializing in oilseed and products market research. OIL WORLD was founded back in 1958 and is recognized worldwide as the independent, authoritative and unbiased information provider for oilseeds, oils and oilmeals. The WEEKLY and daily FLASH reports can be obtained from the internet at www.oilworld.de
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In January 2011 prices of palm oil, other vegetable oils, oilseeds, grains and several other agricultural commodities have approached - - partly exceeded - - the record highs registered in 2008. The annual growth rates of world consumption of vegetable oils virtually doubled since the late nineties. Producers worldwide are still struggling to raise supplies sufficiently to cover demand. World stocks of oils & fats will decline in the 2010/11 season. In fact, stocks of virtually all agricultural commodities will be declining relative to consumption this season. There is the need to expand plantings of the individual oilseeds, grains, cotton and sugar to sufficiently raise production and allow for some recovery in depleted stocks. This is creating a fight for acres which is price-supportive.

World palm oil production showed an unusually small increase of only 0.5 Mn T from a year earlier in calendar year 2010. Malaysian production declined for the second consecutive year. Indonesia recorded only a surprisingly small increase. Colombian palm oil output has declined sharply below expectations due to the bud rot disease (which is not yet under control).

We expect some price pressure in palm oil in the months ahead and a widening of the price discounts relative to soya oil. In the latest OIL WORLD forecast we anticipate world palm oil production to increase by 3.2-3.4 Mn T from a year earlier in calendar year 2011. But contrary to what was experienced in 2008, downward pressure in palm oil prices is likely to be limited in 2011. In the years ahead consumers worldwide will become more dependent on palm oil. Thomas Mielke provides forecasts for 2015 and 2020.

Lauric oil prices increased unusually steeply to record-high levels of around US-$ 2200 in the second half of January 2011, due to very strong demand and insufficient production. Philippine coconut oil output is set to decline sharply in 2011.

In Europe record-high prices of rape oil and other vegetable oils have reduced consumption of vegetables oils in the biofuel industries. Following the steep increase in the past few years, total European consumption of oils & fats for biofuels is likely to decline in 2011 (for the first time ever).

1 February 2011
Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH, Internet: www.oilworld.de


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Questions & Answers (4) :
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Luis Dizon, thanks for your interest in Oil World analyses and forecasts. I could email to you seperately the slides and tables used in the video. Also I could email the video on DVD by airmail to you. best regards, Thomas Mielke (awating your response)
Luis Dizon
6 years ago
Hi Sir, How can I save a copy of this video? Thank you.
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Mr Teoh, thanks for your interest in the OIL WORLD information and analyses. in the years ahead there will be growing dependence of consumers on palm oil supplies worldwide, owing to insufficient increase in world production of soya oil and other vegetable oils. I forecast world palm oil demand at 76-77 Million Tonnes in the year 2020 (of which India at least 10.6 Mn T and China at least 10.3 Mn T). This implies an average annual growth of 3.0-3.1 Mn T in world palm oil output within the next 10 years - - a great challenge for palm oil producers! The question is whether palm oil plantings and yields can be raised sufficiently. No doubt, the plantings in Indonesia turned out much too in 2009 and 2010. I currently estimate palm oil output in 2020 at 40-41 Mn T in Indonesia and at 23 Mn T in Malaysia. More details can be obtained upon request. Unfortunately, there is no complete written text of my video presentation. Sincerely, Tmas Mielke
CH Teoh
6 years ago
Mr Mielke, could you please provide the full text of your paper on the Pointers website as the other speakers? I am particularly interested in your forecasts for CPO production and consumption for 20105 and 2020, globally and for the major producers and consumers (India, China, EU). Thank you
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