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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Impact of US-China Trade War (Round2) on China's Palm Oil Demand
By: Mr. Cai Neng Bin

He is the General Manager of Shanghai Pansun Company. His roles and responsibilities in the company are analyzing oilseeds and oils and fats market information, with main emphasis given on systematic data analysis and make judgement on market trading pattern. He is also able to gauge the change of medium to long market trends of agricultural products, and provides trading and hedging strategies through capturing price differences arises from logical error within markets, and between different products and months.
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The structural change has happened on the supply of China’s oils & fats due to the influence of China-US trade war and African swine fever. The changes in US soybean purchase coupled with weather of soybean planting impact the rhythm of soybean imports by China. At the same time, the African swine fever led to weak demand for soybean meal, and these factors mean that soybean or soybean oil market centred on the cost and supply. The tension in China-Canada relationship leads to the import slump of Canada rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Where the Chinese rapeseed market intend to strike a balance between high profit margin and policy. China palm oil imports mount up thanks to the low price in country of origin. Meanwhile, the spread of price difference between soybean oil and palm oil also driven up the palm oil consumption. The supply-demand balance is expected to depend on the consumption and stock level in the country. Currently, oils & fats trading are largely depend on the supply-demand balance differences among the various oils, which will adjust according to the price difference among each other.


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Questions & Answers (6) :
MOHD RAFIZAN BIN SAMIAN
6 hours ago
Is sustainable palm oil have any effect on China consumption trend? ie, will China buy more if all our palm oil is certified as sustainable?
Mohd Feroize
8 hours ago
Due to differing soybean planting season, traditionally China has to rely on US soybean supply towards the end of the year until mid of next year. As it is approaching the end of the year, has China prepare itself to reduce its reliance on US soybean i.e. has it import a lot of Brazilian soybean earlier. DCE palm oil price has moved up recently. Can it be read as an indicator that China that China is going to face huge soybean shortfall soon and very favourable palm oil import situation in China is forthcoming.
Yazid Mustafa
1 day ago
I understand that big players in China has refineries that can refine CPO. Would you be able to explain why China do not choose to import CPO and refine. The country mostly import refined pam oil. TQ
Jessie Fan
1 day ago
Good Day, Mr Cai, You mentioned imports by China is based on cost against DCE futures. How is this being calculated and what is the import margin for palm olein now? Tks. Jessie
Amy
1 day ago
Mr. Cai. Would appreciate if you can report on the position of China state reserve of soybean, soybean oil, rapeseed and rapeseed oil. Do you expect China state reserve will hold it auction on these commodities in a significant way in the mear future. TQ
POINTERS SECRETARIAT
2 days ago
1) 蔡先生; 你好;1)中国目前港口棕榈油的库存是多少? 2) 中国目前Palm Biodiesel 的进口量从马来西亚和印尼是多少?1) Mr. Cai. What is the current level of palm oil stocks in China ports. 2) What is the current palm oil biodiesel import volume for Malaysian and Indonesia? (Posted by POINTERS secretariat on behalf of Ms. Annie Lim. English translation made by the secretariat)
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