POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Changes of Oils & Fats S&D in China Under the Background of Easing US - China Trade Tension and African Swine Fever Outbreak
By: Mr. Cai Neng Bin

He is the General Manager of Shanghai Pansun Company. His roles and responsibilities in the company are analyzing oilseeds and oils and fats market information, with main emphasis given on systematic data analysis and make judgement on market trading pattern. He is also able to gauge the change of medium to long market trends of agricultural products, and provides trading and hedging strategies through capturing price differences arises from logical error within markets, and between different products and months.
VIEW PROFILE
1. Some relaxation of trade tensions between China and US looses soybean supply in China.

Soybean output is estimated to experience a steady growth with favorable weather in South America. Although policy uncertainty is expected to impact soybean importation from US and South America, increase in total import volume is limited.


2. Strong policy support helps the recovery of swine-raising activities but it still needs more time

The increase in quantity of live sows, releasing of state pork reserves and rising imports relieve the tight pork supply at the moment.
The fluctuation of poultry raising with limited room for improvement is able to ease the volatility of demand for seasonal soybean meals, where demand for soybean meals will be higher in 2H 2020.


3. Demand for soybean meal restricts soybean crushing

Although the soybean crushing profit improved, the uncertainty in recovery of soybean meal demand still restricts soybean crushing activity and manufacturers will control the soybean purchasing rhythm.


4. Tight oils & fats supply in China

China depends more heavily on imports. Oils & fats consumption becomes divided due to changing supply structure.


5. Oils & fats supply reduced and destocking in the first half 2020

Weak demand for soybean meal restrains soybean crushing. Poor profit of palm oil imports. Restricted policy on rapeseed and rapeseed oil imported from Canada.


The full report will only be available from Feb 24, 2020 onwards.
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