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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook: 2nd Half of 2012
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By: Tan Sri Datuk Dr. Yusof Basiron
TAN SRI DATUK DR. YUSOF BIN BASIRON aged 66, a Malaysian.
He is presently holding several important positions which include:
i. Chief Executive Officer of Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
ii. Director of Sime Darby Berhad
iii. Chairman and Director of CBIP Berhad
Apart from holding distinguished corporate positions, he is also involved in other organizations which are:
(i) Senior Fellow and Past President of Academy Sciences Malaysia (ASM)
(ii) Fellow member of Malaysia Scientific Association (MSA)
(iii) Fellow member of Malaysian Oil Scientists' and Technologists' Association (MOSTA)
(iv) Fellow member of the Incorporated Society of Planters
His notable academic achievements are as follows:
i. In 1972, he obtained his Bachelor in Chemical Engineering Degree from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand;
ii. In 1974, he obtained his Post-Graduate Degree in Rubber Technology (ANCRT) in the United Kingdom; and
iii. In 1976, he obtained his Masters Degree in Engineering specializing in Industrial Management (M.E.) and also in Business Administration (MBA) from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.
Before he joined Palm Oil Research Institute of Malaysia (PORIM) in 1979, he held the position of Rubber Technologist/Techno-Economist with the Rubber Research Institute (RRI)/Malaysian Rubber Research Development Board (MRRDB).
In 1986, he completed his doctorate with a PhD in Applied Economics and Management Science from the University of Stirling, Scotland. He was later appointed as the Director-General of PORIM in 1992. He held the position for 8 years until April 2000 before assuming the role of the Director-General of Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB), an organization which existed as a result of a PORIM and Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority (PORLA) merger, from 1 May 2000 until 18 January 2006.
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The total global oils and fats production in 2011 was recorded at close to 180 million metric tonnes. Out of this amount, palm oil production was just above 50 million metric tonnes while the contribution of palm oil by producers in Malaysia and Indonesia to the total production of vegetable oils in the world has increased considerably in the past several years from 14% in 1990 to 28% in 2011. The contributions of other vegetable oils products around the world are also equally important as they also feed the need for oils and fats.
Another recent development is the Eurozone debt crisis which has affected not only Europe but also the global demand for commodities. This has invariably affected palm oil price especially over the past three months. The expected to be bullish price trend did not materialise and prices turned out to be the exact opposite due to the uncertainties in the financial market. For this paper, we have also taken cognizance of this factor to forecast palm oil price for the second half of 2012.
To forecast consumption we utilise our model based on the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR) as our basis to determine the demand and price forecast. The SUR is also a useful indicator to measure the amount of surplus in stock that can be carried forward to the next year, thus determining the number of days or months the surplus will be able to support the population based on current demand. Other factors such as the Eurozone debt crisis and the influence of crude oil price over vegetable oil prices are also taken into account.
We forecast that demand from most regions may actually increase as the financial crisis abates in Europe and improvement in demand from other regions in Asia Pacific and Middle East due to the forthcoming festive season. Although palm oil production in the first six months of 2012 has been lower than forecasted, production will eventually rise in the next six months as more areas mature and better weather conditions prevail.
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead? Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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