Palm Oil Internet Seminar

Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
Brazil, Argentina and US Soybean Outlook 2020
By: Dr. José Alejandro Clavijo Michelangeli

Lead Analyst, Agriculture Research at Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters). Lead the machine learning and regression model development for area, yield and select demand-side variables of the major grains, softs and oilseed crops forecasted by the Agriculture Research team. I also serve on the board of the Bankable Farmer Initiative, which is a project that aims to improve access to credit for smallholder farmers in South Africa.

World soybean production is set for another volatile year in 2020. South American producers will continue to consolidate their position as the leading force behind global soybean production, as the impacts of the U.S.-China trade war, Asian Swine Fever and a poor 2019/20 U.S. crop favor producers in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.

Initial outlooks of the South American 2019/20 crops also seem very promising. Despite a few weather-related, early-season concerns, Brazil is posed for record sowings and production, while Argentina is seeing a boost in area after new tariffs on cereals made soy an even more competitive crop. Paraguay, the world’s fourth largest exporter, will also see area increases and is currently enjoying favorable weather conditions. While U.S. farmers are likely to plant more grain and oilseed acres than last season, current conditions are ripe for corn to stay ahead of soy in 2020/21, if weather cooperates during plantings.

This paper will dive into the details of current South American crop expectations, including current season weather forecasts, as well as a look ahead at the 2020/21 U.S. soybean crop acreage and weather forecasts.

The full report will only be available from Feb 24, 2020 onwards.
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