POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
CPO Price Trend and Market Challenges in 2020
By: Dr. Sathia Varqa

Dr. Sathia Varqa is the owner and co-founder of Palm Oil Analytics (POA), an online publisher of palm oil daily news, price, data and analysis based in Singapore, serving global commodity markets.

POA publishes two daily reports a day covering price assessments analysis of key data and market commentary.

Sathia has been in the commodity information business for over 20 years, and owns POA together with a veteran palm oil broker with over 30 years’ experience.

Sathia previously worked for S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global (previously McGraw-Hill Finance) based in Singapore.

He holds a BA (Business Studies), Master degree in International Trade (Distinction) and a PhD in political economy from The Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen, Scotland.


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CPO prices been on a meteoric rise in the final quarter of 2019 underpinned by lower output against higher export demand and on prospect of higher biodiesel commitments. Higher biodiesel commitments in the 3 key palm producing countries Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand increasing to B30, B20 and B10 respectively was a catalyst for higher prices in the last quarter of 2019. Bullish price outlook fuelled by a mix of fundamentals and sentiments lifted the benchmark CPO Futures by 41% or US$ 214 from the start of October to the end of December while notching a peak of RM 3092 or US$ 747/ton to 3 years high prices. The big question is how long can this high price scenario be sustained? What are main market challenges in 2020? CPO prices have since seen some correction in January to trend below RM 3000/ton. Will prices rebound again to RM 3000/ton? In this presentation we look at the main CPO price drivers in 2019 and offer an outlook on supply and demand scenario in 2020 mainly with reference to biodiesel, India and China. We also look at the laurics supply and demand situation and forecast the price outlook for 2020.


The full report will only be available from Feb 24, 2020 onwards.
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