POINTERS: US Soy Complex Situation Report and Proposed RFS Mandate

By: Ms. Sue Goll

Sue Goll is an agricultural consultant with over 25 years of experience as a cash grain merchandiser and futures industry participant. She worked at A.E. Staley for over six years as a grain merchandiser, trading soybeans, soymeal and corn out of the Des Moines, Iowa soybean processing plant, and the Lafayette, Indiana wet milling corn plant. As Grain Division Manager in Lafayette, Indiana, Ms. Goll oversaw grain merchandising, basis trading, truck and rail logistics, contracting with specialty corn growers and originated corn for two wet milling plants. She also managed offsetting hedge and spread strategies for the Lafayette futures position. Ms. Goll spent the next two years as a farm market advisor for a farm advisory firm assisting producers in cost of production analysis, grain storage management, marketing their crops using cash contracts, as well as, hedging with futures and options contracts. She joined the Chicago Board of Trade in 1989. During her six years with the exchange, she traveled worldwide teaching the use of agricultural futures and options markets. Ms. Goll travelled extensively to SE Asia, as well as Europe, working with producers and commercial businesses as they learned to apply futures and options markets to their cash market activities. Additionally, she specialized in the writings of educational materials and authored booklets for the commercial hedger, her primary focas being the practical use and application of futures and options markets. Her first hand knowledge and use of this complex subject matter and ability to simplify for practical application is what has made her work sought-after around the world. Also while with the Chicago Board of Trade, Ms. Goll worked in product development and marketing, speaking to agricultural businesses and diplomats worldwide on the benefits of futures and options markets. She designed extensive marketing campaigns for various products as well. Sue Goll has been self-employed as a consultant since 1995. In this capacity, she works with domestic and foreign businesses teaching cash/physical market fundamentals, the practical use of futures and options, and writing technical materials for publication. Ms. Goll has worked with clients in multiple countries including SE. Asia, Asia, S. Africa, Europe, S. America and the United States. Over her career, Ms. Goll has been a member of various Grain and Feed organizations and the National Grain and Feed Association. Goll is a graduate in Agricultural Economics from The Ohio State University. She graduated with honors, was a member of Towers Honorary and Sigma Alfa professional agricultural sorority.

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The world soybean market has been one of relative high volatility since 2000. Shortages in some parts of the world, surpluses in others along with unprecedented demand has created an ever-changing market.

Adding further to the complexity (and uncertainty) of the market, in a recent proposal, the EPA has called for an increase in U.S. biofuel production. Having scrapped its 2014 proposal, which kept the biodiesel target at 1.28 billion gallons for 2014 & 2015, the EPA is proposing a biomass-based diesel production of 1.63 billion gallons—the amount produced in 2014. Biomass-based diesel production is made from soybean oil, animal fats and used cooking grease. It also requires refiners to use 1.7 billion gallons in 2015, 1.8 billion gallons in 2016 and 1.9 billion gallons in 2017.
According to the EPA, the proposed increase "will both contribute to market stability for the renewable fuels program and continue to promote a growing and competitive advanced biofuels marketplace.”
This presentation will explore both current & historical soy complex activity as well as a look at the relatively new demand arena of EPA RFS proposed mandates.

A Power Point Presentation that includes:

Graphs & Charts—Soybean Supply & Demand
US & World Supply Charts-Current & Historical
US & World Use Charts--Current & Historical
World & US Ending Stocks
Stocks To Use Ratio

Newly proposed RFS mandate

Verbal explanation of Soy Complex Graphs/Charts & Potential Effect of proposed RFS Mandate on the soy market.

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Questions & Answers (4) :

Izham Hassan

9 years ago

Dear Sue, Thank you for your answer

Izham Hassan

9 years ago

Dear Sue, Following the ban on trans fats in food use, how do you see this affecting soybean oil consumption in the US. Thank you

Sue Goll:
As of 2006, the Food and Drug Administration ruled that food manufacturers had to list trans fats content on their labels. As as result, many manufactures began reformulating recipes to partly or fully eliminate trans fat from their products. Since then trans fat consumption has decreased approximately 75%. In spite of this, the US continues to increase its consumption of soybean oil each year. According to the the June 2016 ruling, all trans fats must be eliminated by June of 2018. This allows 2 years for the manufactures to complete their process of reformulating recipes. Given that the majority of the process is already complete, I do not anticipate any major change in the use of soybean oil by food manufacturers in the US.
9 years ago

Mohamad Raid Majzoub

9 years ago

Dear Ms. Sue Goll Thank you for your presentation. What is your opinion since the current Soybean prices are low do you think farmer in the main supplying countries will continue growing Soybean next year if not what do you think the alternative crop will be? Also I would like to know your opinion, do you think that the recent China devaluation will relay impact the Soybean import and reduce China consumption.

Sue Goll:
Yes, farmers will continue to grow soybeans. The primary suppliers of world soybeans produce on land ideal for corn& beans. Actual plantings depend on profitability and crop rotations. Current prices favor beans over corn. If prices continue at this level eventually input costs and farm rental prices will come down to make growing corn and beans more profitable. It is believed that this year Brazil will plant 2.5-3% more beans than last year in spite of these lower prices. No, I do not believe that the devaluation of the Chinese yuan will reduce their bean consumption. China's is currently only using about 55% of its crush capacity. Consumption of soymeal and oil is keeping pace with crush as meat demand is strong and expected to continue to grow. As a result of the devaluation, crush margins are down about $10/ton on the average. At times this will slow purchases, however, demand for products will continue to cause buyers to look for opportunities to purchase beans on dips and keep the plants running.
9 years ago

Ahmad Redhuan

9 years ago

TQ for the impressive presentation. In the American continent, there is disparity between the soybean tax rate of Argentina, Brazil and USA. That led to Argentina to be more competitive in soyoil and biodiesel as the soybean price is suppressed due to high export tax. In your continent, is there regular negotiations among the three countries to reduce the distortion due to export tax and create a more uniform platform for soybeans and oils competition in your continent?

Sue Goll:
Although there has been effort over the years to come to some agreement that would put the the world's largest producers of soybeans on equal footing, nothing of substance has come of the talks. I am unaware of any effort towards this end at this time. Given the current economic and political situation in S. America it is unlikely that this will change in the foreseeable future.
9 years ago