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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook & CPO Price Forecast - 2nd Half of 2017
By: Marketing And Market Development Division, MPOC

The Marketing & Market Development Division spearheads the promotion and marketing activities of Malaysia Palm Oil in the effort to make it the leading oil in the global oils and fats market. The aim is to create and establish a positive image for Malaysia Palm Oil in order to maximise returns to the Malaysian palm oil industry. Market Expansion This Division enhances the growth of the Malaysia Palm Oil market through new developments and the expansion of existing markets. To compete successfully, innovative approaches are developed. Various proactive programmes targeting trade and consumer markets are carried out to extend into new markets. In addition, new opportunities for investment, cooperation abroad and joint marketing are constantly being sought out to obtain a greater market foothold. Seminars Trade fairs and seminars such as Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminars (POTS) showcase the products and services of palm oil producers and sellers, while broadening their business opportunities. At these events, business contacts and participants are updated with information and knowledge about the palm oil industry. Market Networking The development of a market intelligence network, market linkages and awareness programmes helps foster closer ties with industry-related bodies. These strategies help to educate and influence those who have a keen interest in Malaysia Palm Oil, i.e. policy makers, the trade community, consumers, scientists, medical professionals and researchers.
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This paper will analyse issues that will affect palm oil price in 2017 such as demand and supply analysis and we will also take into account the influence of the current drop in crude oil price on palm oil price especially in the first half of this year. Demand for palm oil from major consuming countries such as India, China, EU and USA is nevertheless, expected to remain upbeat and we will take these factors into account. The regional analysis on the demand and supply scenarios will be aggregated at the global level to forecast the price, demand and supply balance in 2017.


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Questions & Answers (3) :
Cai Qiang
3 months ago
Dear Sir/Madam, I noticed that the SUR in slide 47 is 3,544 for 2017F, is that an error? Besides that, can you share with us why SUR in Middle East growing these few years and up to 25%, as compared to US, Brazil, Argentina or even Sub-Sahara which are 16% and below? Thank you.
Izham Hassan:
Dear Mr. Cai, The Middle East region has always historically maintained high stock levels for oils and fats as most of the countries in this region are net importers. This region covers 27 countries, including certain countries in the North Africa. - Each region has different intake, economic condition, policies etc where the SUR will be unique accordingly. - Oils and fats intake in the Middle East region is growing contributed by larger consumption and growing population especially in Turkey, Iran and Egypt. - Some countries would invariably have high SUR whilst some would have low SUR - We would aggregatize the SUR based on the overall regional patterns
3 months ago
Yudha Gautama
3 months ago
Dear Sir/Madam, I have a question that I would like to verify. 1) On the last slide, you are assuming that 2017 palm oil price will average at RM2,693/ton. With that assumption and knowing that palm oil price averaged at RM2,900/ton level in 1H17, that implies palm oil price average of RM2,400/ton level in 2H17, which is below the range of RM2,576-2,811/ton you stated. Could you please verify if the RM2,693/ton is average price for 2017 or 2H17? (Seems like average price of RM2,693/ton for 2H17 makes more sense). Thanks a lot.
Izham Hassan:
Dear Mr. Gautama, Thank you for the question. Yes although the price started on a high in 2017, it has been hovering between RM2,500/MT and RM2,800/MT since March 2017. Our price forecast is based on the demand and supply forecast for 2017 and will be the average price for H2 2017.
3 months ago
Yudha Gautama:
Dear Mr Izham, thank you for the clarification.
3 months ago
Guo Gengcun
3 months ago
Dear Sir/Madam, I noticed there are some discrepancies in 2017F oils & fats production in China stated in slide 4 (dropped 130,000 MT) and slide 10 (increased by 1.151 Mn. MT). May I know which is the correct info? Besides that, may I know how SUR in all the S&D tables being calculated as I noticed again there are some discrepancies in the formula. Thank you and looking forward to your reply.
Izham Hassan:
Dear Mr. Guo, Thank you for your question. Oils and fats production in China is poised to increase by 1.15 Million MT as shown in Slide No. 10. As for your second question, The SUR is based on the stock balance over the consumption.
3 months ago
Guo Gengcun:
Dear Mr Izham, thanks for your reply. Does the consumption include export? If yes, SUR in some of the tables were unable to reflect the formula given? TQ
3 months ago
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