POINTERS: Malaysia’s Palm Oil Supply and Demand for 2018

Datuk Dr Ahmad Kushairi Din

Dr Ahmad Kushairi Din is the Director-General of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). He graduated with a B.Agric.Sc, two Msc and PhD in quantitative genetics. Dr. Kushairi specializes in oil palm breeding and genetics, where together with his team of breeders, bred 13 new varities, and prospected oil palm germplasm in Africa and South America.

He authored and co-authored 270 publications. He is well connected with the scientific community and the oil palm industry both locally and abroad. He sits as a Board of Directors in Ministries and companies, member of national committees, active in professional societies and President of The International Society for Oil Palm Breeders (ISOPB). Dr. Kushairi had served MPOB and the oil palm industry for nearly four decades since 1979.

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		Mr. N. Balu CAREER HISTORY: • 33 years of experience in the palm oil industry – in the area of Market Intelligence/Research, Market Promotion & Market Development; Designing and Executing Counter-Trade / Offset Deals and Palm Oil Credit Payments Arrangement (POCPA) • Malaysian Trade Negotiator for Bilateral, Regional, Plurilateral and Multilateral FTAs & WTO Trade Negotiations (Focussing on Commodities) : Trade in Goods/Market Access, Rules of Origin and Trade Facilitation. • Former Newspaper Editor with the New Straits Times (in charge of Beriteks) • Former Economics Research Officer with the Consumer Association of Penang (CAP) • Chairman of Global Economics and Marketing Conference, PIPOC 2015 & 2017 • Chairman of Palm Oil Economic Review & Outlook Seminar, 2016 & 2017 • Chairman of Palm Industry Labour: Issues, Performance & Sustainability (PILIPS), 2016 • Chairman of Roundtable on Oils & Fats Global Situation, Palm Oil Familiarization Programme, POFP 2016 • Presenter of Seminar Papers at International Conferences EDUCATION & PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS: • Certificate in Middle Management, CBI, Rotterdam, Holland. • Bachelor of Social Science (Hons in Economics & Management), USM, Penang. • Graduate Diploma with Distinction (Business Studies), RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia. • Master in Business Management (International Marketing), RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia. • Certified Practising Marketer (CPM), AMI, Australia. • Fellow of the Australian Marketing Institute, Australia. • Management Representative (Services) and Lead Internal Auditor for ISO 9001:2008, MPOB MEMBERSHIP: • Malaysian National Shipping Council (MNSC Treasurer) • Committee Member for Commodities Customs Classification, Royal Malaysian Customs Department. VIEW PROFILE

The year 2017 witnessed significant recovery of the Malaysian palm oil production from the 2015/2016 El-Nino phenomenon, which hit output severely in 2016. Crude palm oil (CPO) production in 2017 recorded a double-digit growth of 15.0%, stood at 19.92 million tonnes from 17.32 million tonnes in 2016. The increase was due to higher FFB processed, by 17.7% arising from higher productivity, which increased by 12.4% to 17.89 tonnes/hectare. In the global arena, firmer major competing oils prices and higher crude oil prices had contributed towards higher palm oil prices. The average CPO price in 2017 was higher by 4.9% to RM2,783 per tonne as compared to RM2,653 per tonne in 2016. The widened CPO price discount as against other major competing oils in 2017 as compared to the previous year had positively influenced exports to major markets. Total exports oil palm products amounted to 23.93 million tonnes, higher by 2.8% as against 23.29 million tonnes in 2016. Improved export demand coupled with firmer palm oil prices contributed to the higher palm oil export revenue in 2017 by 15.4% estimated at RM78 billion as against RM67.58 billion in 2016. Improvements in 2017 were also seen in oil palm planted area, production, exports, imports, albeit higher closing stocks. For 2018, Malaysian oil palm industry is expected to continue its momentum in 2017, particularly for palm oil production and exports. However palm oil prices are expected to decline in 2018.

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Questions & Answers (7) :

Sam Yen

6 years ago

Assuming that the B10 biodiesel mandate comes into affect this year, do you have any estimates on how much that would raise Malaysia domestic palm oil consumption by?

gus Lim

6 years ago

Will the Malaysian government extend the CPO export tax removal for another three months if the stock levels do not go down to 1.6 million tons, or do you have any other policy as back up?

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
This is a policy matter and it will be decided at the Ministry level
6 years ago

gus Lim

6 years ago

Will the Malaysian government extend the CPO export tax removal for another three months if the stock levels do not go down to 1.6 million tons, or do you have any other policy as back up?

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
This is a policy matter and it will be decided at the Ministry level
6 years ago

MOHD FIRDAUS ABDUL AZIZ

6 years ago

Dear Mr Balu/ Datuk, What would be your prediction for Malaysian CPO/PPO export trend to EU on 2018?

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
Intake of MPO by India is expected to be slightly higher in 2018 from 2017 as the Indian buyers is expected to take advantage of the zero export duty of CPO during the 3 months period. In addition, the rabi/winter oilseed (rapeseed) crop output is also expected to be lower due to the decline in acreage.
6 years ago

Cai Qiang

6 years ago

Dear Datuk Dr Kushairi/Mr. N Balu, do you think the import of Malaysian palm oil by India will continue to drop in 2018? Why?

Syamimi

6 years ago

The market says that in 2017 RBD PO export increased sharply. Due to higher Malaysian RBD PO produced, there is short of stearin supply in the global market. At one time, stearin price went event higher than olein price. Is it true that Malaysia did export higher amount of RBD PO in 2017. If so, why? Is it possible for MPOB to share with the industry breakdown of major fractions of refined palm oil exported so that market facts can be confirmed. Your figure shows that Malaysia consumption of palm oil is around 2.8 million MT,estimated from your half year local consumption figure in 2017 of 1.4 million MT. Do you have the breakdown of the consumption by sector e.g. cooking oil sector, etc.etc. etc. Sarawak, according to your study has the lowest yield. Any reason to explain?

Sathia Varqa:
At mid-day stearin was offered at US$ 685, compared to olein at US$ 655 on FOB Malaysia basis
6 years ago

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
Yes, it is true. In 2017, Malaysian exported 1.51 million tonnes of RBD PO worldwide, up by 26.2% (313,915 tonnes) from 1.20 million tonnes in 2016. The increase in RBD PO export volume was due to higher demand especially from the EU which was up by 72,207 tonnes or 59.4% and to other countries such as South Korea (+31,907 tonnes or 27.5%), Vietnam (+30,427 tonnes or 36.6%), Iran (+26,372 tonnes or 30.7%), Philippines (+25,335 tonnes or 2 folds) and etc.
6 years ago

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
As indicated in the paper, the consumption figures are derived figures from Opening Stocks + Production + Imports - Exports - Closing Stocks. We do not have the actual consumption figures
6 years ago

Anthony Yap

6 years ago

Hi Mr Balu/Datuk; a) On Page 12; PK Production for coming Jan/Feb'2018 will it be lowered than 320K, in which similar pattern like what happened on Jan/Feb2017? b) On Page 13; is the similar pattern also happening on Jan/Feb 2018; which production of CPKO will be below 150k? c) What is the CPKO forecast prices for 2018 ? THANKS

Balu A/L Nambiappan:
At this point, we do not provide monthly production forecast of CPO & CPKO as well as price forecast to the industry.
6 years ago