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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend:
CPO Market - Will the Current Bearish Trend Reverse?
By: Mr. Oscar Tjakra

Oscar Tjakra is the Executive Director, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness. He is located in Singapore, and focuses on palm oil and grains and oilseeds sector.

Oscar was previously a RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Analyst with Singapore branch from July 2008 to October 2010 covering various sectors including grains and oilseeds, sugar, cocoa and animal protein.

In his most recent role, he was Senior Vice President of Freight Research with Oldendorff Carriers Singapore, where he led global supply and demand research of the grains & oilseeds sector.

Oscar holds a Master of Science in Applied Finance from Singapore Management University and Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) from Nanyang Technological University.


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The world oilseeds supplies have grown steadily in the past decades due to increasing oilseeds planting areas and increasing oilseeds yield. The increase of these oilseeds supplies, excluding oil palm, are driven mainly by increasing global demand for oilseeds meals for the production of animal feeds. As a consequence of this, more oilseeds are crushed for their meals, instead of for their oils in recent years, which adds into increasing availability of global vegetable oils supply.
Assuming normal weather, we expect a continuation of the global palm oil oversupply situation, which will result in higher global inventories in 2019. This is mainly the result of an increase in mature palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia and Malaysia, which will continue to provide downward pressure to prices in 2019. In addition, global soft oil supplies in 2019/20 are still expected to be high, on the back of large soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed crops across major producing countries. Availability of these soft oils will provide competition for palm oil demand. The outlook of palm oil prices, however, could be positive in 2020 if B30 mandate is successfully implemented in Indonesia.


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Questions & Answers (3) :
MOHD RAFIZAN BIN SAMIAN
6 hours ago
In your opinion, will MSPO and RSPO certification help the industry to get higher market share or at least retain the existing when compared to other oils? If no, is it still necessary for plantation to get certified?
POINTERS SECRETARIAT:
Sustainability will play more important role in the future than it is already now in terms of consumers’ purchase decisions. Hence, sustainable palm oil production is the way forward for palm oil industry. ( Posted on behalf of the speaker)
5 hours ago
POINTERS SECRETARIAT
11 hours ago
My price forecast is based on assumption of higher palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia in 2H 2019 as compared to 1H 2019. On top of that I expect that palm oil exports from Indonesia to peak around September – October 2019, before tapering down until the end of 2019. I believe we have seen the bottom of palm oil prices during late June – early July 2019. However, I still expect palm oil oversupply situation to remain in 2H 2019. Additional note: Average prices for BMD #3 contract in Q3 2019 (up until Aug 17th) is still at RM 2,039/ton so far. ( Posted on behalf of the speakers)
Nur Fairuz
24 hours ago
CPO price has risen. It has already surpass the RM2,150 price. In your powerpoint, the forecast you made for Q3 and Q4 2019 average CPO price is RM2,050 for both quarters. Would you be able to explain the trend of your price forecast. Meaning why Q2 and Q3 2019 average CPO price is not higher than Q2 2019 average of RM2,085. TQ
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