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Section 1: Price Directions:
Palm Oil Market Analysis: Factors that Influence Trade and Prices
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By: Ms. Ivy Ng
Ivy Ng is currently the Regional Head of Plantations and Head of Malaysia Research in CIMB. She is a CFA charterholder and holds a BSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. She has been covering the palm oil sector since the mid-90s and expanded her coverage to include the regional palm oil companies since 2005.
She joined CIMB in 2005 and currently covers regional plantations and conglomerates. Ivy has been an investment analyst since 1994, with prior stints in Affin-UOB, Peregrine Research, Hwang-DBS Securities and GK Goh Research.
Ivy was ranked number one by Asiamoney polls in the Malaysian industrial sector in 2014 to 2016 and utilities sector in 2007 and 2008. She was also voted Malaysia’s best power analyst in 2007 and best plantation analyst in 2008 by The Edge. VIEW PROFILE
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This paper will discuss the various factors that are expected to influence CPO price direction and in turn palm oil trades in 2017.
In 2016, CPO price climbed 46% to end the year at RM3,202.5 per tonne as palm oil supply was negatively impacted by the El Nino event in 2015.
We project CPO prices to trade in the RM3,000-3,300 per tonne range in Feb 2017.
However, the current high CPO price may not be sustainable in 2H17, as palm oil supply is expected to rebound on the back of higher FFB yields.
The main bullish factors for prices continue to be the weak ringgit, low stockpiles, seasonally lower palm oil output and higher biodiesel mandates in Indonesia.
Factors currently capping CPO price upsides are further release of rapeseed oil stocks by the Chinese government, competition from soybean oil and slower global economic growth.
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| Section 1: Price Directions |
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| Archives |
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MITIGATING THE NEXT WAVE OF MARKET UNCERTAINTIES
Nov 14, '22 ~ Nov 18, '22 |
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ASSESSING 2022: MANAGING OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS
Mar 28, '22 ~ Apr 01, '22 |
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Section 2: Opportunities for Palm Oil in Asian Market
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Oils & Fats Supply, Demand and Outlook
Oct 18, '21 ~ Oct 24, '21 |
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Section 1: Price Direction
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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Section 2 : Special Focus on the US
Apr 05, '21 ~ Apr 11, '21 |
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
Jun 22, '20 ~ Jun 28, '20 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities
Feb 24, '20 ~ Mar 01, '20 |
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Section 2: Special Focus
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
Aug 19, '19 ~ Aug 25, '19 |
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Special Focus - India
Feb 25, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Feb 18, '19 ~ Feb 24, '19 |
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Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Aug 06, '18 ~ Aug 12, '18 |
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Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 1: CPO Price Trend
Jan 29, '18 ~ Feb 04, '18 |
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Section 2: Regional Focus : CIS Countries
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 1: Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 21, '17 ~ Aug 27, '17 |
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Section 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1: Price Directions
Feb 20, '17 ~ Feb 26, '17 |
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Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects
Aug 22, '16 ~ Aug 28, '16 |
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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices
Feb 22, '16 ~ Feb 29, '16 |
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Second Half 2015 - Anticipating Market Price Direction
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Special Focus: Indian Sub-Continent
Aug 17, '15 ~ Aug 23, '15 |
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Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price
Feb 23, '15 ~ Mar 01, '15 |
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2nd Half 2014: Market Challenges, Predictions And Directions
Aug 25, '14 ~ Aug 31, '14 |
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Anticipating 2014 Palm Oil Price Direction
Feb 17, '14 ~ Feb 24, '14 |
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Prospects For Second Half Of 2013 - Managing Price Fluctuations
Jul 22, '13 ~ Jul 29, '13 |
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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective
Feb 18, '13 ~ Feb 27, '13 |
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Palm Oil : Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Market Directions
Aug 06, '12 ~ Aug 17, '12 |
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges
Feb 13, '12 ~ Feb 20, '12 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Latest Price Trend
Aug 08, '11 ~ Aug 16, '11 |
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Challenges, Opportunities And Price Direction
Feb 07, '11 ~ Feb 17, '11 |
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2010 Year End Prospects - What Lies Ahead?
Aug 02, '10 ~ Aug 08, '10 |
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Thanks for the question. History revealed that previous "strong" El Nino events occurred in 1982, 1997 and 2017. Based purely on this, it suggests that we could witness the next strong El Nino in 15- 18 years time. As for an El Nino event (regardless of strength), it could happen approximately every two to seven years.
7 years ago