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POINTERS 2014 MPOC
Palm Oil Internet Seminar
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges:
2012 Challenges in Oils and Fats Market - Price Outlook
By: Mr. Thomas Mielke

Thomas Mielke is Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH, OIL WORLD, in Hamburg (Germany), a leading research organization that provides global supply, demand and price analyses, statistics and forecasts for all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils & animal fats and oilmeals as well as for biodiesel and other products. From 1993 until 2007 Thomas Mielke was a member of the Programme Advisory Committee of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. Thomas Mielke has given more than 350 lectures and talks in conferences and workshops all over the world. He joined the OIL WORLD team in the mid-1970s, after studying economics and specializing in oilseed and products market research. OIL WORLD was founded back in 1958 and is recognized worldwide as the independent, authoritative and unbiased information provider for oilseeds, oils and oilmeals. The WEEKLY and daily FLASH reports can be obtained from the internet at www.oilworld.de
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Questions & Answers (14) :
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Teo Khain Aik, many thanks for your request. The website address is www.oilworld.de or, alternatively, you can send an email to info@oilworld.de for any questions as well as for subscribing. Thanks again and best regards, Thomas Mielke
Teo Khain Aik
6 years ago
Hi Thomas, may i know the websie address to subscribe OIL WORLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY Report? thanks;
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Nicholas Ross, many thanks for your question regarding Malaysian palm oil production. My current estimates for calendar year 2012 is 19.2 Mn T. However, it is possible that production actually reaches 19.4-19.6 Mn T. This would be just 1-2% above my current forecast. Let me add that my bullish price outlook for palm oil is to a large extent based on the spill-over bullishness from the prospective global tightness in soya oil and rape oil, which will raise world import demand for palm oil. Price forcasting should always be made from the global supply & demand perspective -- including all oils & fats as well as the impacts from oilseeds, oilmeals, the energy market (mineral oil prices) and other factors. This is what we regularly do within OIL WORLD Global Research and Analysis, and it would be my pleasure to provide sample copies of the OIL WORLD WEEKLY and MONTHLY reports, if required and if you are not yet on subscription list. Best regards.
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Faudzy, thank you for your words of appreciation. If you need anything else from me, please feel free to contact me. It is my pleasure to respond to your questions: 1) Soybean crop prospects have further deteriorated since my presentation was recorded. It is now considered possible that South American soybean production will decline by even 12-13 Mn T, reducing world soybean production by even 18-19 Mn T in the world crop season 2011/12. This will create a significant global production deficit and will require demand rationing both for soya oil and meal and thus contribute to higher prices, spilling over also to palm oil. However, biodiesel production in South America will continue to rise in 2012. Thus, there will be a major bullish impact on a sizable decline in soya oil export supplies. This will raise world import demand of palm oil, reducing stocks. 2) Global soybean import demand will become more dependent on US soybeans. We thus expect soybean stocks as of end-August 2012 to fall sizably below the latest USDA estimate. 3) Insufficient supplies of rapeseed & canola in Europe and on the world market will raise EU import demand for palm oil, for sunflower oil as well as for biodiesel. This could be a market opportunity for biodiesel producers in Southeast Asia. best regards.
Nicholas Ross
6 years ago
Hi Thomas. Outside of your bullish views on the Global oils complex, your outlook for Malaysian palm growth is relatively pessimistic basis a "biological decline in yields" (as view shared by most the market). But looking at this from a YOY perspective is a bit distorted, as we saw 2009 and 2010 production as we saw very poor yields. 2011 CPO yield was actually 2% lower than MPOB 2008 average of 4.08t/ha (so, we know what the potential can be). Combined with significant mature area expansion coming from Sarawak, do you think there could be upside to 300-500kmt in Malaysia? With the huge amount of recently matured/maturing trees in Indonesia bound to experience increases in yield as they approach optimal age, do you think this could offset the impact of "tree stress"?
Nicholas Ross
6 years ago
Hi Thomas. Outside of your bullish views on the Global oils complex, your outlook for Malaysian palm growth is relatively pessimistic basis a "biological decline in yields" (as view shared by most the market). But looking at this from a YOY perspective is a bit distorted, as we saw 2009 and 2010 production as we saw very poor yields. 2011 CPO yield was actually 2% lower than MPOB 2008 average of 4.08t/ha (so, we know what the potential can be). Combined with significant mature area expansion coming from Sarawak, do you think there could be upside to 300-500kmt in Malaysia? With the huge amount of recently matured/maturing trees in Indonesia bound to experience increases in yield as they approach optimal age, do you think this could offset the impact of "tree stress"?
Nicholas Ross
6 years ago
Dear Mr. Mielke, Once again an excellent presentation and congratulation. My question is that given the anticipated significant deterioration in South America soyabean crop prospect due to unfavorable weather which will eventually have an impact on the global supply problem, in your opinion how would this implicate: 1. The feedstock situation and usage in the production of bio diesel in South American and more so with the intended increase in the mandatory admixture of biodiesel in these countries. Do you see palm oil as the alternative choice or subsute to overcome this feedstock shortage? 2. Given this situation, you have also suggested that the switch for US soya bean will become more apparent. Do you see the need to balance the US internal needs (soya oil for biodiesel and soy meal for the feed industry) against these impending export demand? 3. Given the poor crop production of rapeseed in the EU and the Ukraine, for the bio diesel industry in the EU, do you foresee a further increase in bio diesel imports and less crushing activity taking place in the EU?
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Mr Mohamed Ramadan Ghanem: I am sorry, but I cannot comment on that issue. best regards, Thomas Mielke
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
my response to question 4: We always monitor developments of currencies, energy prices and other outside factors. There is now more uncertainty about developments in Greece which could result in a weakening of the Euro in the near to medium term.
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
My answer to question 3: My forecast of strengthening palm oil prices is based on the developing tightness in prospect for all vegetable oils on the world market, primarily the impacts of the substantial production deficit in soybeans as highlighted in my presentation. Smaller world export supplies of soya oil will further raise dependence on palm oil. Also, the year-on-year increase in world supplies and exports of palm oil will slow down considerably in April/Sept 2012, adding to price strength.
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
... and here my response to questions 2: For the crude palm oil futures on the BMD I expect a price high of 3700 ringgit in the year 2012.
Thomas Mielke
6 years ago
Dear Mr Rahid, sorry for the delay, but here are my answers to your 4 questions: 1) In my presentation I gave a price forecast for crude palm oil of US-$ 1140 for the average of Jan/Dec 2012 -- I estimate the high at US-$ 1280 and the low at US-$ 1000 in 2012.
Mohamed Ramadan Ghanem
6 years ago
Dear,Mr.thomas i work in big company , we established saponification factory but storage oils in port it is difficult for us, plant capacity about 150 ton per day soap noodles. there are any solution for this problem
Rachid
6 years ago
Good day, Some quick questions: 1 - You gave a price forecast for Olein, CPO, SBO & PKO. Could you pls give us low and high for above product for 2012. 2 - Mistry expected on his latest speech that price of CPO will reach 4 000 MYR. Did you agree on that? 3 - We expect more export of palm oil products from Indonesia due to changed on his export taxes which should result stock of palm oil in Malaysia will remains ample. As palmoil price have some correlation with stock, we don't see an huge upside on price unless external factor will prevail (soya....). 4 - You never pay attention to USD/EURO on your price forecast. Could you pls explain Thanks in advance
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