Section 1: CPO Price Trend:
Indonesia Palm Oil Industry: Current State and Outlook 2018
Mr. Mohamad Fadhil Hasan
Mohamad Fadhil Hasan is Corporate Affairs Director of the Asian Agri Group, and Board Member of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. In addition, he is also member of the Committee for National Economy and Industry of Republic of Indonesia and Chairman of Indonesian Bank Central’s Supervisory Board (BSBI). Fadhil Hasan has more than thirty years experiences in conducting economic policy research and consultancy in macroeconomics, industries, and agricultural, both in government and private sectors.
He graduated from Bogor Agricultural University, earned an MSc from Department of Economics, Iowa State University, USA and finished his Ph.D program at the University of Kentucky, USA majoring in Agricultural Economics
This paper discusses current state and outlook of Indonesian palm oil industry in 2018. Growth of palm oil production in Indonesia shows the declining trend in the next ten years compared with the historical trend of the past ten years. In the meantime demand for palm oil is predicted to expand at slower rate than that in the past five years due to factors of China economic growth moderation, and more intense negative campaign. However, demand for palm oil is projected to be higher in its supply suggesting the palm oil price uptrends within the 2017-2027 time frame.
Current policy on biodiesel blending in Indonesia and its prospect in China, along with recovery of export in importing countries will affect the demand, while policy on moratorium and restrictions on palm oil expansions will determine the supply side. These factors, together with other variables will determine performance and price of Indonesian crude palm oil in 2018.
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