POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS:
The Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook in the New Environment
Mr. Thomas Mielke
Thomas Mielke is Executive Director of ISTA Mielke GmbH in Hamburg (Germany), OIL WORLD, a leading research organization that provides global supply, demand and price analyses, statistics and forecasts for all the major oilseeds, vegetable oils & animal fats and oilmeals as well as for biodiesel and livestock products with clients in 100 countries. He is a frequent speaker at conferences and workshops all over the world. Thomas Mielke joined the OIL WORLD team in the mid-1970s, after studying economics. He is a member of the Programme Advisory Committee of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board and is giving lectures at the University of Hamburg (TUHH). In 2014 Thomas Mielke received a Lifetime Excellence Award of the Malaysian industry in recognition of his contributions and commitments. OIL WORLD was founded in 1958 and is recognized worldwide as a leading independent, authoritative and unbiased information provider. The WEEKLY and daily FLASH reports can be obtained from www.oilworld.de and also an OIL WORLD report in Mandarin is released 2 times a week.
The covid-19 pandemic has resulted in significant changes also on the global supply and demand of oilseeds, oils and oilmeals. Thomas Mielke will highlight them and discuss impacts on the price outlook of palm and lauric oils and give reference to the just released 700-page Oil World Annual 2020 (www.oilworld.biz). The interdependence with other commodities must be acknowledged, in particular with soybeans & products, the rapeseed and sunflowerseed complexes as well as crude mineral oil.
The prospective vegetable oil demand for food will be discussed on a global scale, with particular emphasis on India and China. It will be outlined why world exports of vegetable oils will pick-up in April/June 2020 after the big year-on-year reduction in Jan/March and to what extent palm oil is likely to benefit.
Massive downward revisions have become necessary in biodiesel consumption worldwide since early 2020. Thomas Mielke will present latest Oil World forecasts on biodiesel production for Jan/Dec 2020 and analyse the major feedstocks used (palm oil, soya oil, rapeseed oil and used cooking oil). And , interestingly, he will explain why in the European Union palm oil usage for biodiesel production will not be reduced much.
Palm oil is facing many challenges also on the supply side. Yields and production have fallen short of expectations so far in 2020. The labour shortage will become more severe in Malaysia in July/Dec 2020, if the Government keeps its new, very restrictive policy on foreign labour, creating the risk of even greater production losses.
Forecasts will also be presented on the world production of palm oil, soya oil and other oils and fats, on the likely development of stocks as well as on prices.
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