Opportunities, Challenges And Trend In 2015 CPO Price:
China's 2015 Oilseeds Crushing Oils and Fats Outlook
China’s 2014-2015 (Oct-Sep) will see 10% more soybean and 5% less rapeseed crushing, or 1400tmt more oil from beans, and 400tmt less oil from rapeseed, than last season. If import of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil is 800tmt, 700tmt and 6000tmt respectively for Oct 2014/ Sept 15 , then we shall see a supply growth of 2.6% for vegetable oils, which does not look high comparing to still 7% GDP growth, but would again add to commercial inventory of vegetable oils in China, for the 3rd consecutive season. It would be the 7th consecutive season of inventory growth of vegetable oils, if we count state reserve together. Therefore, China shall not be a driving force of any price rally in world vegetable oil market, at least not for 2014-2015, maybe not for many years down the way neither.
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