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Mapping The Palm Oil Price - 2013 Market Perspective:
Palm Oil Price Analysis and Outlook for 1st Half of 2013
Mr. Benny Lee
Mr. Benny Lee is a private trader, trainer, speaker and practitioner of technical analysis for 10 years. He has conducted trading and technical analysis workshops for private and institutional investors in Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan. Some of his courses such as CPE (Continuing Professional Education by the Securities Commission) have been approved in Malaysia. He has also spoken in many international conferences such as GlobOil, India, Gold and Options conferences in Thailand (AFET), the Asean Rubber Conference, Palm Oil Conference in Jakarta, POTS by MPOC (Malaysian Palm Oil Council) and many others. He has also presented in Exchange-organised events in Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and Pakistan. He has presented to a wide range of participants from a group of 10 people to a large audience of 500 people. Mr. Lee writes articles on technical analysis for Smart Investor (Monthly financial magazine in Malaysia), Busy weekly (Weekly financial newspaper), Pulses (Monthly financial magazine by the SGX) and Palm Oil Fortune (Monthly Palm Oil publication). He also appeared on Channel News Asia (Singapore) and BFM89.9 (Malaysia) for his views and commentaries on the financial markets. He graduated in Business Administration and obtained the world’s best paper in Financial Management from the Association of Business Executives, U.K.
VIEW PROFILE
Palm oil prices were being pressured in the past eight months as inventory climbs to historical high levels in the last quarter of 2012. Are prices of crude palm oil going to continue to decline or start to turn bullish this year? Price forecasting has always been a major indication for any businesses and economy for developing strategies. However, price forecasting is never easy as there are many theories and many factors that may affect price movement. One way to forecast price is through chart analysis and this paper aims to use chart analysis to forecast the price action for crude palm oil futures in the near term with high confidence level. This paper will describe the methods use, such as trend analysis, pattern and cycle analysis and support and resistance analysis to determine the next course of price direction and make near term forecasts. Other factors such as production, export and inventory of palm oil, crude oil prices, US dollar and soybean prices will be taken into consideration to support the forecast made using chart analysis. A conclusion will be made on the price forecast together with the forecast validity, and hopefully it will serve as a guide to benefit market players.
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