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Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
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POINTERS
ORGANIZED BY:
2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices:
Malaysian Palm Oil - Anticipating Better Palm Oil Prices (Production and Stock Analysis)
Mr. N. Balu
CAREER HISTORY:

• 33 years of experience in the palm oil industry – in the area of Market Intelligence/Research, Market Promotion & Market Development; Designing and Executing Counter-Trade / Offset Deals and Palm Oil Credit Payments Arrangement (POCPA) • Malaysian Trade Negotiator for Bilateral, Regional, Plurilateral and Multilateral FTAs & WTO Trade Negotiations (Focussing on Commodities) : Trade in Goods/Market Access, Rules of Origin and Trade Facilitation. • Former Newspaper Editor with the New Straits Times (in charge of Beriteks) • Former Economics Research Officer with the Consumer Association of Penang (CAP) • Chairman of Global Economics and Marketing Conference, PIPOC 2015 & 2017 • Chairman of Palm Oil Economic Review & Outlook Seminar, 2016 & 2017 • Chairman of Palm Industry Labour: Issues, Performance & Sustainability (PILIPS), 2016 • Chairman of Roundtable on Oils & Fats Global Situation, Palm Oil Familiarization Programme, POFP 2016 • Presenter of Seminar Papers at International Conferences


EDUCATION & PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS:

• Certificate in Middle Management, CBI, Rotterdam, Holland. • Bachelor of Social Science (Hons in Economics & Management), USM, Penang. • Graduate Diploma with Distinction (Business Studies), RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia. • Master in Business Management (International Marketing), RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia. • Certified Practising Marketer (CPM), AMI, Australia. • Fellow of the Australian Marketing Institute, Australia. • Management Representative (Services) and Lead Internal Auditor for ISO 9001:2008, MPOB


MEMBERSHIP:

• Malaysian National Shipping Council (MNSC Treasurer) • Committee Member for Commodities Customs Classification, Royal Malaysian Customs Department.

VIEW PROFILE
The paper highlights significant factors contribute to Malaysian palm oil (PO) price movement with focuses on production and stock and its impact on crude palm oil (CPO) prices in 2016. Both supply and demand factors play a significant role in term of influencing the PO price movement. PO price movement is also dependent on the market sentiment factor which is unpredictable as an example El Niño (extreme hot weather phenomenon). From the supply perspective, the PO stock build-up had contributed to the PO price bearishness in 2015. Meanwhile, weaker soyabean oil prices and export demand from major importing countries have become significant factors in contributing to the decline in CPO prices in 2015. However, the implementation of B7 programme helps to increase intake of PO in the local market, thus help contribute to minimize the PO price decline in 2015. Besides that, the introduction of the oil palm replanting scheme (SITS 2015) with an allocation of RM100 million also expected to reduce PO supply in 2016. The scheme is expected to see the replanting of 83,000 hectares of unproductive palms and palms over the age of 25 years and expected to reduce PO supply around 250,000 tonnes in 2016. The analysis shows that, with mildly El Niño effect, CPO production and PO stock are projected at 20.01 Mn T and 2.69 Mn T respectively in 2016. However, with strongly El Niño effect, CPO production and PO stock are projected to be declining further at 19.40 Mn T and 1.97 Mn T respectively in 2016. Therefore, it is believed that this scenario will indeed be a positive indication for the firming of CPO prices in the marketplace in 2016.
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