2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges:
2012 Malaysian Palm Oil Landscape
Mr. Ramli Abdullah
He graduated in the fields of Statistics and Computer Science. This gives him a multiple background to serve as a researcher/modeler at PORIM/MPOB for the past twenty years. He carried out researches related to modeling of oils and fats using statistics as a tool. With the aids of models, he is a forecaster for MPOB, especially for production and price of palm oil and other oils and fats. With his knowledge, he wrote a number of papers and published them in journals.
He also participated in lectures, local and international seminars/conferences. He presented papers at KLCE palm oil outlook seminar, and PIPOC international conferences in 2007 and 2009. He had actively presented papers in China in promoting palm oil to the Chinese traders for the past five years. This participation had increased awareness and interest among the Chinese in consuming more palm oil which ultimately increased their imports of palm oil from Malaysia.
This paper assesses the past performance of global oils and fats and Malaysian oil palm industry and later followed by a landscape for the industry for 2012. There are 17 oils and fats produced by nine annual crops, three perennial trees and four animal fats. The annual crops have shorter life span compared to the three perennial trees and are planted and harvested within one year. In contrast, the perennial trees have longer life span, extending more than 25 years, thus ensuring stability in supply. The development of global oils and fats is largely contributed by the palm oil sector. Production and export of palm oil then are mainly accounted by Indonesia and Malaysia. Malaysia recorded significant expansion in its oil palm industry and its 2012 landscape is expected to continue showing bullishness in its price and increase in its production. Production in 2012 is expected to increase to 19.36 million tonnes under the assumptions that matured areas increase to 4.5 million hectares due to increases of replanted and new planted areas in 2009, continuation of matured areas in 2011 and normal weather in 2012. Price of palm oil in 2012 is expected to be in a range bound but in an upward direction in 2012, mainly due to strengthening of soybean oil price and crude oil price.
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