Archive
2020
24 Feb - 01 Mar 2020
Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
24 Feb - 01 Mar 2020
Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities
22 - 28 Jun 2020
POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
2019
2018
29 Jan - 04 Feb 2018
Section 1: CPO Price Trend
29 Jan - 04 Feb 2018
Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus
06 - 12 Aug 2018
Section 1: CPO Price Trend
06 - 12 Aug 2018
Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
2017
2016
22 - 29 Feb 2016
2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices
22 - 28 Aug 2016
Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
22 - 28 Aug 2016
Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
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POINTERS
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2012 Price Direction, Issues & Challenges:
Global Oils and Fats Outlook
Mr. Mohd Izham Hassan
Mohd Izham Bin Hassan graduated from the Southern New Hampshire University, USA with a Bachelor of Science Degree Majoring in Economics & Finance in May 1990. Having started his career in the banking sector with Maybank, he moved on to join one of the biggest plantation companies in Malaysia heading the insurance unit. Among his responsibilities were the procurement of the group insurance requirement and to ensure adequacy of cover for company’s risk exposure. Due to his knowledge in this field, he was assigned to the committee to set up the Enterprise Wide Risk Management (EWRM) programme for the company. He was also assigned to conduct research on production, compile data on estate land bank and liaise with regulatory bodies on submission of monthly statistics. He has more than 15 years of experience in the plantation industry and prior to joining Malaysian Palm Oil Council, he was the Head of the Statistics Department of a major insurance company in Malaysia. He has presented papers at MPOC organised seminars in Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Singapore. He is currently the Manager, Marketing & Market Development Division at Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) responsible for market movement of global oils and fats.
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It is estimated that the total global oils and fats production in 2011 was about 184 million MT. The contribution of palm oil by producers in Malaysia and Indonesia to the total production of vegetable oils in the world has increased considerably in the past several years from 14% in 1990 to 28% in 2011. The contributions of other vegetable oils products around the world are also equally important as they also feed the need for oils and fats.

To forecast consumption we utilise our model based on: Beginning stocks + Production + Net import = Ending Stocks + Consumption, which will give the Stock Usage Ratio (SUR). This will be the basis to determine the demand and price forecast. The SUR is also a useful indicator to measure the amount of surplus in stock that can be carried forward to the next year, thus determining the number of days or months the surplus will be able to support the population based on current demand.

We forecast that demand from most regions may actually increase due to stronger demand from Europe and from other traditionally strong consumption regions, especially in Asia Pacific and Middle East. New markets in the African continent will also spur the demand for 2012. Production is also forecasted to increase due to higher yields projected due to better weather conditions.
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