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15 - 30 Nov 2020
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Archive
2020
24 Feb - 01 Mar 2020
Section 1 : CPO Price Trend
24 Feb - 01 Mar 2020
Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Opportunities
22 - 28 Jun 2020
POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS
15 - 30 Nov 2020
Test Volume
2019
2018
29 Jan - 04 Feb 2018
Section 1: CPO Price Trend
29 Jan - 04 Feb 2018
Section 2 : Global Palm Oil Market Focus
06 - 12 Aug 2018
Section 1: CPO Price Trend
06 - 12 Aug 2018
Section 2: Global Palm Oil Market Focus
2017
2016
22 - 29 Feb 2016
2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices
22 - 28 Aug 2016
Section 1 : Palm Oil Price Fundamentals
22 - 28 Aug 2016
Section 2 : Trade Issues and Market Prospects
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
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POINTERS
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POINTERS ON THE PRICE TRENDS:
Africa's Growing Market-Potential for Palm Oil
Mr. Abah Ofon
Abah has over 21 years’ macroeconomic, commodities, trade and research experience in financial markets in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Prior to founding 3XG UK CONSULTING LTD, he was lead analyst at the London firm Agribriefing, Head of agri-commodity research and Africa economist for Standard Chartered Bank’s global franchise based in London, Dubai and Singapore. Abah has provided advisory services on agricultural markets to some of the largest agribusiness names and institutional clients including hedge funds and central banks. Abah is a prominent pundit in the financial and business media and was profiled in the UK’s Financial Times at the height of the 2008 commodity crisis. Abah is a graduate of the London School of Economics and has been a member of UK Society of Business Economists as well as a Financial Advisor licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
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The expected growth in African crude palm oil (CPO) output has yet to match potential. After early and encouraging signs of a pickup in palm plantings a decade ago, visible in the 2014 /15 season when CPO production on the continent rose by an estimated 7 percent year-on-year, momentum seems to have waned. Output expansion has since deteriorated with no expansion forecast in the 2020 and 2021 season. As a result, Africa’s supply deficit has reached a record 6 million tonnes in 2019 with further downside risks in the near term.
For instance, our initial forecast for Liberia to become a major player in Africa’s CPO industry by 2030 seems to have been stunted by what has been termed difficult times for the palm oil industry in Liberia and which has significantly affected the ability of players in the sector to develop palm plantations at the rate at which they would have wanted. To a large extent, Liberia contextualizes the swathe of challenges that blemish the sector on the continent. Stakeholders in Tanzania, which is looking to reduce its nearly 400,000 tonnes of imported CPO annually, acknowledge that the local oil palm value chain is underdeveloped and faces several confounding constraints including low yields and a lack of investment in the industry as well as a suboptimal functioning market.
Overall, African output has remained relatively flat over the last three seasons excluding marginal improvements in Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria. And while Gabon has become a more visible player in the regional palm market, it is growing from a very low base and will require consistent improvements in plantings to become a major exporter in the region.
As a result of Africa’s urbanisation and rising income levels, consumption of CPO is growing at a brisk pace, although the relatively weak uptake of processed foods means CPO demand in Africa somewhat lags India. Still, Africa accounts for almost 12% of global CPO consumption vs 4% of global CPO production. Egypt and Kenya represent large and growing markets for CPO in Africa, with South Africa, Tanzania, Ghana, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Cote d’Ivoire also substantial import destinations.
Elsewhere, the disruptive nature of the pandemic on several related CPO markets, including biofuels, and the associated liquidity and supply chain constraints imposed by the coronavirus are likely to further hamper prospects for output growth in the near to medium term. Encouragingly for the sector in Africa, policymakers and local investors continue to view the sector constructively and several initiatives to boost productivity have been deployed—or are in the pipeline—albeit with potentially varying degrees of success.
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Now
15 - 30 Nov 2020
Test Volume
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