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2016 Market Direction - Twists and Turns of Palm Oil Prices:
War is ON "currency war" & its impact on commodities in 2016
Mr. Ali Muhammad Lakdawala
Ali Muhammad Lakdawala : Procurement in charge for Edible Oils & Fats at India’s premier FMCG conglomerate, ITC Ltd, India. Prior to joining ITC Ltd, he worked as a Senior Commodity Research Analyst and Trader at Anand Rathi Commodities Ltd, India the only analyst given the opportunity to operate with three different commodity verticals (Energy Market, Edible Oil & Oilseeds and Spices). Previous work experience also includes as Research Analyst with renowned organization, Unit Trust of India (UTI) Commodities. This culminated in numerous international report publications, being quoted in various business press (Bloomberg, Dowjones, Reuters, Economic Times,etc), invited as a guest speaker at various events and nominated as countries Leading Energy Analyst by Zee Business. Experiences span continents as he had self-funded to study resource rich Africa and feasibility of setting up a commodity desk in Zambia for Oilseeds & Maize. This not only enhanced the gamut of agro-commodity knowledge but enabled forging valuable networks with FAO and various government agencies in Zambia. Presented paper at various global forums on Edible Oil & Oilseeds specialising in theme "Looking beyond fundamentals for price direction”. Education - A Commerce Graduate with Masters in Management Studies (Specialization in Finance: Rank Holder in Economics) from Mumbai University (India) and Diploma holder in Supply Chain Management - from the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).
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This paper is in continuation to paper published & presented in November 2015 at PORAM Annual Forum, Malaysia. Titled "Future of Palm Oil : During the time of War (Currency War)". Wherein, paper discussed How countries used & still using Monetary Tools as one of the war tactics in battlefield which is not pre-defined to protect its self interest in turn creating ripple effect in global economies, Relationship between currency and its impact on commodities specifically to Palm Oil. Further to that it listed out Nine factors which will be key determinants in 2016 for markets and finally concluding with ECG for monitoring the health of Edible Oil & Oilseeds (ie)EL Nino , China & Greece.

Economist John Maynard Keynes stated "When the facts change, I change my mind"

Post paper presented in November 2015 there has not been major change in global market dynamics, in fact market has just moved in the way it was expected and the WAR has got more intensified as more players has entered the battlefield. Adhering with Mr. Keynes statement looks like we need not change our mind yet as current markets are in sync with prognosis presented in earlier paper.

Current paper would validate the status of on-going WAR by looking in the performance of key currencies, its impact on commodities post which it would revisit Nine factors listed in previous paper & evaluate its standing in current market scenario. Finally concluding with events to be watchful about and analysing the market structure of palm oil thereafter estimating the price forecasts for commodities & key currencies for current year.
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